panic? who's going to panic. if you have a week or more to prepare for such a possibility, there need not be a panic. people who panic make good victims. if the forecast track holds and an implicit track into the western gulf is what the nhc keeps advertising, i'm sure the emergency planning types will get everything they need to in order, and local authorities will use the media to prepare coastal residents for whatever is in order. they won't have more than speculation and long range modeling to go on for a couple more days... by about saturday the threat to the u.s. should be more apparent (an active system will have a movement cone implying an area of greatest threat to a section of the u.s. coast.. or maybe a caribbean coastline). i like to think that in some way, calculated speculation on what td 5/future ernesto might do from this site and other sources official and not will work its way around to people and get them to do the basics before something scary is bearing down on them. HF 0133z25august
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