Suspect that there is a chance that overnight the llc did reform under the deeper convection - perhaps now closer to 13.5/64 - and that the agencies have it right with the DTs. I can't really find much of an llc near the 5AM advisory. Admittedly, it is not daylight, yet . Even if a llc exists to the west of the deep convection, lots of room to believe that a more definitive one has formed under the convection. Late last night I'm betting we were watching a mlc rotating into the deeper convection, afterall. (still, speculation)
Either we have a 38MPH TD with the LLC still out ahead of very impressive convection that has been shoved well east, or, quite possibly, we have a 50+mph TS with a new LLC more or less well-underneath a huge blowup. Hopefully vis images tell at least some of the story soon. Recon would be much appreciated!
Still heading West at about 280* per 5AM.
I think this looks much more like 45-50MPH TS Ernesto right now, personally.
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