I agree... the LLC appears to be somewhere around 13.5N, 65W, underneath the SW edge of convection, which places it further east from the last advisory.
Intensity forecasts are extremely difficult... it would probably be best if they offered a range of possible intensity (analogous to the "cone" for the forecast track), but if there is one thing that people seem to like less than a bad forecast, it is a forecast that implies any uncertainty at all. I seem to recall Katrina being forecast to become a major hurricane fairly early in the game, though, to correct something mentioned earlier.
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