Quote: Guys I have been looking at the speeds of these storms and they seem to be to fast for the storm to do anything serious.. How big a role does the speed of the storm play in its intensity... I remember Rita was between 10-12 mph the whole time it was a cane.. This thing is hauling ass at 20 mph. Does tropical storm normally move at this speed, is this one of the reasons why we have seen such few canes, since most serious tropical storms I have tracked this year have had a speed of atleast 15 mph.
It plays a big role.The faster the forward speed the less time to intensify,but this system is going to slow up. The bigger and more organized it gets,means it requires more water to "feed" on and the system becomes more cumbersome. It was at 17kts.,but that is going to go downwards.
Incidentally, I also see closed circulation and the Dvorak numbers indicate to me this is a Tropical Storm. I'm still not in love with the models, yet. I do see some retrograde in the ridge that opens the the door for more Northwesterly, rather than Westerly movement. The BAM models, A98E, are not to be trusted (JMO) and NHC is averaging with the GFDL so far to the North, but I'm a big believer in the GFDL even though it does have problems with shearing wind. Now if the the mid-upper level shear recedes as well, and I think it will with the recession of the ridge, we get a substantial hurricane, but maybe weaked by transitioning over Cuba. Now is there a recurvature indicated towards the Northern Gulf Coast? Depends on the steering I think. Interested to see the 11 am data returns.
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