that is definitely a tropical storm. if it was almost one yesterday when recon and sfc obs showed it nearly as so, and the organization improved as much as it did last night (i.e., the center stayed under a cdo with improved banding features)... what more evidence do you need? i'm not sure if they're trying to prevent a friday dip in the energy markets or what, by not naming it until there is unequivocal proof from recon. that said, the system seems to be encountering somewhat stronger shear, and may become a tad more disorganized today. from its looks, as well as the continued slow separation of the upper low to its nw from the TUTT... it continues to look like the model scenarios that build ridging along the forecast track and over the system in a day or two are going to be right. the system has continued to slow down and is now at such a speed where it could survive a decent amount of shear. should get enough to keep it from strengthening much for the next day or so. spitting out some convective boundaries, so the overall satellite appearance may deteriorate today if the convection doesn't flare back like it was last night. assuming the shear lets up after a day or maybe 36hr, land masses become the major impediment to strengthening. speaking of which, jamaica is about 48hr out along the forecast track. how come no watches up? long term.. the models have sort of flipped except for the gfdl.. stll way to the right with a strong system and little ridging. nhc has the forecast track now implicitly aimed at louisiana. that's a fair compromise.. where a stronger system would be more to the right, and a weaker one more to the left. if t.d. 5 becomes the hurricane ernesto we fear it will, should be arriving on our shores thursday-saturday next week... front end of labor day weekend. HF 1530z25august FYI, anybody see the tornado warnings in NYC? freaky.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is disabled
Thread views: 29297
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center