Right on the money about the conservatism being shown by NHC. I think they want to have all the duckies lined up regarding where the center is. Finding the center of circulation is critical to good modeling for initialization. That is reflected in their cautiousness. Some of the models may be skewed due to that. All may want to re-initialize after the next recon, which will be critical. I was checking some of the NCEP Means at 192 hours and I see some movement of the ridging eastwardly and northerly after the passing of the trof in about 72 hours. If that does happen I could see some recurvature around the ridge.
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