Hank, I think the surface vortex is too well developed to allow reformation to the southeast under the old mid level CDO, just as Chris' vortex was too strong to allow anything at the surface try to spin up under the well formed CDO it shed by Puerto Rico. However, the latest satellite images show a new blowup of convection just barely east of the center and if the shear drops by just 5 mph it should be able to fire convection over the east half of the center itself, just like it did yesterday. Water vapor shows the central Caribbean upper flow beginning to veer more northward(rather than eastward into Ernesto) thanks to the flow around the increasingly cut off ULL, and in response Ernesto's cirrus outflow is beginning to expand a bit to the west and southwest. If the ULL can follow the models and accelerate westward even faster then Ernesto may have already encountered the strongest shear it ever will.
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