Just a quick backtrack to this gentleman's comments on the GFDL... The GFDL has gone intensity buck wild in general in the last run or two...It's too early to believe it. As a tie in, I must cross the line and temporarily move into another basin to make the point.... On the 12Z, the GFDL took Ioke (Central Pacific) to 879 mb and 210 MPH. This breaches the limits of any pressure reading seen on a model from anybody I've ever talked too. Ioke on the 18Z runs does not get a pressure that low, but once again...it shows a hurricane with a massive category 5 windfield. Granted, that storm is a cat 5 now, but even with an eyewall replacement, the storm can't do it for that long. Likewise, I notice the intensity referenced on the 18Z GFDL of Ernesto, but the pressure would have to be lower on this storm to get those kind of wind speeds. 940mb is not that low for a cat 5. Granted, Charley pulled it off as a strong cat 4 at 941 mb, but he was compact like a tornado and that created a very tight pressure gradient that enhanced the windfield. I currently would have to dismiss the intensity forecast of the 18Z GFDL for Ernesto at this point.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is disabled
Thread views: 27189
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center