NOGAPS is seeing a break in the ridge that I was talking about being possible back a couple of pages.
I discount it for a number of reasons, the most important of which being the stability of the pattern in this area over the last week or two. While it is POSSIBLE for that sort of a break to occur, its not terribly likely.
With that said, I do see where it can happen and how. There's a buckle in the jet out west - if that comes eastward sufficiently and stays south far enough, it could fracture the ridge sufficiently to cause this sort of a recurve.
IF that sort of situation is going to set up we should know sometime on Sunday, and Ernesto will pass well east over Cuba of its current progg'd path. The WV Sunday should also show the jet buckle by that point on the playing field.
I don't put much stock in that solution as things sit right now - it still looks to me like the most likely path is somewhere between Corpus and Applach, with a bias towards the western half of that area, although I wouldn't rule out a recurvature until later this weekend.
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