Quote: NOGAPS may be reading a weakness in the ridge or a shortwave moving through. One of the 18Z models did have a weakness in the 500mb ridge. I wish I could remember which one it was.
Here is what the NOGAPs and now GFS are responding to - a break in the upper ridge in the central GOM which will allow the storm to move northward. This from the 00Z GFS run. The culprit may be an upper level low/through that migrates from CO through the plains and eventally over KY/TENN in the next 4-5 days. It may have just enough punch to weaken the ridge. The latest GFS run shows the storm stalling off p'cola and drifting south and then east similar to what Elena did back in 1985. Sure hope that doesn't pan out as a large portion of the Gulf Coast will suffer for many days with this storm. I just don't see anything in the next 7-10 days to drive this storm too far northward into the continental US so if this becomes a major hurricane and it stalls & meanders, that would truly be a very bad situation.
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