It's the end of the 1st quarter... current score: Ernesto 1, Shear 0, with the real potential loser being the central or east-central Gulf Coast... again.
The ULL to the west appears to be moving out on the JSL loop. Whether Ernesto actually crosses Jamaica or goes just to the south or north of it is not significant in the long term (except of course to people on the island). Any loss of strength that Ernesto might encounter would likely be regained in very short order. It's getting a comma-like look, and pressures are dropping steadily. Watch, wait, and root for shear.
It's curious, though... yesterday the NHC was decidedly un-bullish on what would become Ernesto. Now the official forecast puts the Louisiana coast under the gun for another major hurricane just days after the anniversary of Katrina. It could all change again today, for the better or worse.
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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