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Tropical Storm #Barry Approaching Landfall North of Veracruz in the SW Bay of Campeche.

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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Genesis
Weather Guru

Reged: Wed
Posts: 119

Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
Sun Aug 27 2006 11:19 AM

Anyone on the west coast of Florida needs to take today, since its a weekend, and get your hurricane kit together. Get your vehicle(s) fueled, if you have a generator and intend to stay get the fuel for the genny, get your food stocks in order, batteries for lights and radios, etc.

Yes, anyone on the west coast - and if you're in the Keys, you need to be prepared to bug out if an evac is ordered, meaning get all your vital papers and such together and be ready to go.

On the present track Key West is right in the maw of it. That right shift on the 11 AM is NOT good for the Keys at all, as it puts Key West right in the Eyewall. Now of course this far out if the black line is on you odds are good it won't be when the storm gets there, BUT it pays to be prepared.

The only good news out of the 11 AM is that the storm looks to spend 24 hours over Cuba. That is likely to take quite a bit of wind out of his sails, and we can all hope for THAT! But - a SMALL displacement over water would cut his total over-land time to half that (for the COC) which, while it would shift the track somewhat west, would also mean he'd be a much meaner PITA when he emerges into the gulf.

I was a bit surprised to see the track nudge by the NHC on the 11AM; it'll likely move back and forth some over the next 24 hours, and exactly how much of Cuba it hits, and at what angle, will have a big impact on what the strength is coming into the gulf.

In any event I see nothing that would prevent an explosive deepening (assuming the COC holds together going over cuba, and I expect it to) once it emerges. The water there is extremely warm and its not just the surface layer - there's a lot of oceanic heat content, and shear is forecast to be basically non-existant. That, plus established outflow channels is not a good recipe.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	danielw	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:19 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	RevUp	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:43 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	Ronn	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:11 PM
right shift	HanKFranK	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:37 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	RevUp	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:37 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:19 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	chaser1	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:03 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	Thunderbird12	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:41 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:48 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	dredlox	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:31 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	Rich B	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:30 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	Black Pearl	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:27 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	Random Chaos	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:35 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	RevUp	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:51 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	RevUp	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:00 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	MikeC	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:30 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	pcola	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:18 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:47 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	RevUp	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:01 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto - Florida on Notice	Rasvar	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:15 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Cat 5orBust	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:12 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	ftlaudbob	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:19 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Marknole	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:04 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:33 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	ptchargal	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:32 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	byrdlh	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:18 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	pcola	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:34 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	ElizabethH	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:40 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:46 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Genesis	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:07 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Alabama	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:03 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	AgentB	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:08 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Sheeper	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:19 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:12 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Lysis	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:24 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	madmumbler	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:59 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Genesis	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:19 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	GuppieGrouper	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:51 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	TampaRand	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:19 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Heather	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:23 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Storm Cooper	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:27 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	RevUp	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:52 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	NEWS PHOTOG	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:09 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	StPeteBill	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:01 PM
Cat 3 to hit near Spring Hill, FL	Ryan	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:05 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:06 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	hope	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:08 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Colleen A.	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:18 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	dredlox	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:34 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	MikeC	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:44 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	pcola	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:43 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:44 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	FlaRebel	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:49 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Colleen A.	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:08 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Genesis	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:16 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	dkblostnottinghamsmoney	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:02 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Colleen A.	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:52 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Ron Basso	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:39 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	JMII	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:11 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	SirCane	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:27 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:22 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Southern4sure	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:47 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	ftlaudbob	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:58 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	pcola	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:50 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	pincty	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:00 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	GuppieGrouper	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:17 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	pincty	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:29 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Cindi	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:57 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Cat 5orBust	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:27 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Geoff	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:45 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	ftlaudbob	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:36 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	pcola	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:42 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	hope	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:41 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:34 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	Cat 5orBust	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:43 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	flanewscameraman	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:55 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:05 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	ElizabethH	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:08 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	scottsvb	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:04 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	cieldumort	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:50 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	Clark	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:33 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	Beaumont, TX	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:09 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	hope	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:14 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	charlottefl	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:21 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:39 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	hope	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:31 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	Storm Cooper	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:35 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	hope	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:45 AM
Hurricane Ernesto & eddies	LadyStorm	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:56 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto & eddies	cieldumort	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:03 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto & eddies	lcbj68c	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:08 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	cieldumort	Sun Aug 27 2006 05:47 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	danielw	Sun Aug 27 2006 05:56 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	cieldumort	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:03 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:18 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	Tampa_met	Sun Aug 27 2006 05:51 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	Rich B	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:01 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	danielw	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:03 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	Rich B	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:22 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	danielw	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:26 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	Ron Basso	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:55 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	Marknole	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:18 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	ftlaudbob	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:40 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	tornado00	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:24 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	pincty	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:39 AM
Jogs	rmbjoe1954	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:46 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	scottsvb	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:36 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto	danielw	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:31 AM

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