This is a part of the AFD out of the Mobile office. Although it was done at 4am this morning there is a good point made...
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LOOKS TO BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WAY IT APPEARS NOW...THE EVOLVING FLOW PATTERN ACTS TO LIFT ERNESTO MORE POLEWARD AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF...EVENTUALLY RE-CURVING THE STORM TO THE NORTHEAST. EXCEPT FOR INCREASED SWELL...THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK AS OF 09 UTC/4 AM CENTRAL THIS MORNING WOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WE STILL NEED TO KEEP IN MIND THAT ERROR IN THE EXTENDED RANGES OF HURRICANE FORECASTS CAN BE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE DAY 4 AND 5 POINTS. FOR SPECIFIC TRACK FORECASTS AND HURRICANE MODEL DISCUSSIONS REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEB SITE: www.NHC.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.SHTML /10
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