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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

RevUp
Weather Guru

Reged: Sun
Posts: 181

Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
Sun Aug 27 2006 11:33 AM

So, the UL trough is hanging tough against Ernesto, although not enough to diminish its intensity. This is a dramatic change, and the change in the forecast models over the last 24 hours is remarkable. The history of Ernesto and previous forecast tracks are quite amazing! Do you realize the forecast errors for Ernesto beyond 72 hours? Ernesto is one of the reasons these avg forecast errors are so large -- and it's not done yet. At this point, I expect the CENTER of Ernesto to never make landfall in the U.S., although the entire SE US coast will get some rough surf. The subtropical ridge is retreating quickly. After getting torn up crossing Cuba, I believe Ernesto will strengthen to a cat III off the E coast of FL before zooming off to the NE.

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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Hurricane Ernesto track	allan	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:33 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	lagirl	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:59 AM
Hurricane Ernesto track	debwire	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:26 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Bob Dag	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:34 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	hofloka	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:14 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Judes	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:26 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	chase 22	Sun Aug 27 2006 03:12 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Wxwatcher2	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:43 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	tester	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:59 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Rasvar	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:46 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	hofloka	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:48 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	alliedj	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:01 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Nateball	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:32 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	HumbleStormKat	Mon Aug 28 2006 01:21 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	Colleen A.	Mon Aug 28 2006 12:40 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	twizted sizter	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:01 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	RevUp	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:33 AM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	ShreddedUmbrella	Sun Aug 27 2006 12:45 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	JMII	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:54 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	sdear	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:15 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	ltpat228	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:13 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track	cuidado	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:22 AM

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