Ernesto looks to have a small core, but a large circulation... especially to the east. If this is the case then land interaction could disrupt the core, but the large circulation would allow the system to hold on, or spit out a new circulation. this could well be the case when Ernie reaches Cuba. however, with the pressure increase this morning, Ernie may be trying to spawn a new llcc somewhere under the convective shield, allowing the old one to weaken. recon will tell us more.
Also, while interest is on the US, lets not forgot theres alot of people between Ernie now and Florida. And with poor infrastructure, high winds, and 20" rain, this is a real danger to many.
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