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Archives >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 291
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ernesto track
      Sun Aug 27 2006 01:54 PM

Quote:

Ernesto will die in the mountains of Cuba.




I wouldn't go that far, but I do think it will be downgraded to a minimal Cat 1 or maybe even TS levels. Heck I find hard to believe it's a Cat 1 'Cane now. Sure the outflow is good but the center is still not wrapped up very tightly. Then again after seeing so many Cat 4/5 last year maybe I just forgot what a Cat 1 really looks like.

I've said it in another post but I believe we got a jumper here. It will have trouble over Cuba making the center hard to find, then re-appear in a disorganized state over the Straits of FL / east GOM, from there it will spin up to a Cat 2/3 then hook sharply - ala Charley. In fact I'd bet Ernesto becomes know as Charley Jr when all is said and done. In the end I see a larger wind and rain field (displaced from the center), but a weaker storm wind-wise overall (in other words no Cat 4).

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16)

Edited by JMII (Sun Aug 27 2006 01:59 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Ernesto track allan Sun Aug 27 2006 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track lagirl   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:59 AM
. * * Hurricane Ernesto track debwire   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:26 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track Bob Dag   Sun Aug 27 2006 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track hofloka   Sun Aug 27 2006 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track Judes   Sun Aug 27 2006 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track chase 22   Sun Aug 27 2006 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track Wxwatcher2   Sun Aug 27 2006 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track tester   Sun Aug 27 2006 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track Rasvar   Sun Aug 27 2006 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track hofloka   Sun Aug 27 2006 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track alliedj   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track Nateball   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track HumbleStormKat   Mon Aug 28 2006 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track twizted sizter   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track RevUp   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track ShreddedUmbrella   Sun Aug 27 2006 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track JMII   Sun Aug 27 2006 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track sdear   Sun Aug 27 2006 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track ltpat228   Sun Aug 27 2006 01:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Ernesto track cuidado   Sun Aug 27 2006 11:22 AM

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