looks like it's weakened a good bit. hmmm... maybe some harsh land interaction going on. eastern cuba can do the same sort of thing... but the western part is just hilly and not all that harsh. might be that the ridging hasn't built very well over ernesto, either. right now there's still a bit of a shear axis extending up to the not-so-strong upper vorticity north of hispaniola, east of florida. a lot of the dynamic guidance is still leaning well west of florida. that comes more in to play if ernesto spins down a good bit. the relationship to charley i mentioned earlier.. only comes into play if we have a small-core system moving off the w. coast of florida. the differences in the upper synoptic pattern have been noted before. HF 1805z27august
the recon data... wow, wonder if the center jumped again... or is trying to as we speak. definitely not the center of a hurricane, that vortex msg. -HF
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