The mountains are wrecking havoc on Ernesto right now. He is going to be a very difficult storm to forecast. Such a small storm getting the amount of disruption that it is getting will make any guess on future intensification just that, a guess. Does a weakened Ernesto pull further north and only be a cat 1 threat max or will he skim along south of Cuba before crossing and get better organized? I suspect Ernesto will be downgraded at 5:00. Probably will not be far enough away from the mountains. If we are lucky, it disrupts him to the point that he won't recover.
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