While Ernesto may have a relatively moderately-sized sphere of associated convection, his actual core is relatively small - and simply not that fully-developed, as we have seen with so very many recenterings over the course of several days now.
The things to watch for - that also make his forecast such a particularly very complicated one:
Smaller cores can spin up and spin down somewhat rapidly. This sometimes includes extremes of both sides - from rapid deepening into a high-end major hurricane on the upper end, to rapid unraveling into an open wave on the other.
Right now we are seeing the spin down - Smaller cores do not do as well traversing land masses, as a far greater percentage of them are impacted by the topography, as well as not over the water.
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