While Ernesto may have a relatively moderate sphere of associated convection, his actual core is relatively small - and simply not that fully-developed, as we have seen with so very many recenterings over the course of several days now.
The things to watch for - that also make his forecast such a particularly very complicated one:
Smaller cores can spin up and spin down somewhat rapidly. This sometimes includes extremes of both sides - from rapid deepening into a high-end major hurricane on the upper end, to rapid unraveling into an open wave on the other.
Right now we are seeing the spin down - Smaller cores do not do as well traversing land masses, as a far greater percentage of them are impacted by the topography, as well as not over the water.
The problem is when/if it makes it over Cuba it's like sending it into a convection oven with the SSTs we're looking at. If it's got any kind of meat left to it once it crosses, it might not take much to fire it up again. Or it could fall apart.
I would feel a lot better if this thing came off Cuba further to the west than they're projecting as of 2pm. Right now, the track is so close to the coast it's nearly impossible to predict where landfall will be.
Big storms can do a lot more damage but at least they're a little more "predictable" in terms of trying to figure out where they're going. These smaller storms, they're nearly impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy.
-------------------- Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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