The center appears to be moving very slowly over the southern peninsula of Haiti, slightly north of the official forecast track. The Massif de la Hotte mountains in this area rise over 7,000 ft. and will be very disruptive to the small circulation of Ernesto, especially since the system is moving very slowly. Even though we are witnessing a seemingly dramatic decrease in intensity, Ernesto is not falling apart. A recent burst of convection has flared up over the center of circulation, and despite its size, satellite imagery indicates a well-defined circulation center. I think we will see this regain strength before encountering eastern Cuba. Will Ernesto survive this encounter? Unless Ernesto minimizes contact with Cuba by moving north or south of it, I think there is a very good chance that the storm may not survive this journey. Whatever Ernesto does from here, a disaster is already happening in western Haiti as we speak.
-------------------- Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer
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