Quote: Charlie has nothing todo with Ernesto.....for 1 its not the same path..and 2nd the trough coming down is not as strong..this wont make a sharp turn.....For now..its how strong it will be when it leaves Cuba late Tuesday and where it leaves???? Also how much time it will have to strengthen cause if it enters florida near the glades..then might be a strong TS or min Hurricane..but if it stays off the west coast of florida to at least Sarasota N then a Cat 2-3 is possible...also I feel a track N to near 28N before any bend to the NNE...but thats 3.5 days away. Its just a watch storm...and currently I feel only a TS right now.
This pretty much mirrors my thinking about it right now. It's just a borderline hurricane right now and maybe a bit below. I don't think they'll downgrade it unless there is some major reduction in central pressure and/or windspeed sustained. These are really hard storms to predict when they run the long Cuban axis and I don't think we'll have a real good idea about this until maybe Tuesday after 1 pm. Then maybe some things will change (or not). It's looking pretty ragged right now thanks to Haiti.
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