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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Storm Cooper
Moderator

Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL

Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
Sun Aug 27 2006 04:13 PM

Another clip of an AFD from Tallahassee this time with some great points made...

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY-SUNDAY) THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ERNESTO. THE BULK OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK MUCH FARTHER EAST THE
PAST FEW RUNS...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK NEAR OR ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...THE THREAT TO OUR FORECAST AREA WOULD BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...IT IS DANGEROUS TO DISMISS THE THREAT TO OUR AREA SO FAR
OUT IN TIME. LAST YEAR (AROUND THIS TIME WHEN KATRINA WAS STILL
EAST OF FL) THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS FORECASTING KATRINA TO MAKE
ITS SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...WHEN IT
ACTUALLY ENDED UP MAKING LANDFALL IN MS. (THE MODELS DID EVENTUALLY
LOCK ONTO THE CORRECT SOLUTION WITHIN ABOUT 72 HOURS OF LANDFALL).
SIMILAR CASES (IVAN...DENNIS...ETC.) HAVE SHOWN THAT THE MODELS
CAN FLIP FLOP A BIT IN THEIR LONG RANGE FORECASTS WHEN HANDLING
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERNS LIKE RECURVATURE. THE BOTTOM LINE FOR OUR
AREA IS THAT IT LOOKS BETTER THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO (IF YOU
DON`T WANT HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN)...BUT WE ARE NOT OFF THE
HOOK YET AND PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL ERNESTO FINALLY MAKES THE
TURN SOME TIME ON TUESDAY.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	MikeC	Sun Aug 27 2006 04:13 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	ltpat228	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:02 PM
Max Mayfield	danielw	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:15 PM
Re: Max Mayfield	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:17 PM
Re: Max Mayfield	Josh Delsman	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:18 PM
Re: Max Mayfield	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:23 PM
Re: Max Mayfield	Josh Delsman	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:27 PM
Re: Max Mayfield	Rasvar	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:31 PM
Re: Max Mayfield	Josh Delsman	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:33 PM
Re: Max Mayfield	Rasvar	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:37 PM
Re: Max Mayfield	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:32 PM
Re: Max Mayfield	GulfBreezeFL	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:42 PM
Re: Max Mayfield	Josh Delsman	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:34 PM
Re: Max Mayfield	danielw	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:47 PM
Re: Max Mayfield	Rasvar	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:00 PM
Re: Max Mayfield	Storm Cooper	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:38 PM
Re: Max Mayfield	Rasvar	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:21 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	dkblostnottinghamsmoney	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:50 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	Colleen A.	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:11 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	jessiej	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:24 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	Tropics Guy	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:40 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	Doombot!	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:03 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	hofloka	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:46 PM
northward movement?	LoisCane	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:51 PM
Re: northward movement?	TampaRand	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:05 PM
Re: northward movement?	JMII	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:49 PM
Re: northward movement?	MikeC	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:35 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	CDMOrlando	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:30 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	RevUp	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:39 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	TampaRand	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:53 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:59 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	Wxwatcher2	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:22 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	Josh Delsman	Sun Aug 27 2006 05:21 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	TampaRand	Sun Aug 27 2006 05:44 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	jbmusic	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:01 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	Josh Delsman	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:10 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	hurricaneguy	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:13 PM
i see the wobble west, not ready to buy into it as movement	LoisCane	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:59 PM
Re: i see the wobble west, not ready to buy into it as movement	Josh Delsman	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:02 PM
Re: i see the wobble west, not ready to buy into it as movement	HurryCaneForm	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:12 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	Lysis	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:06 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	gulfbreezeguy	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:22 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:25 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening DELETED	Josh Delsman	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:28 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening DELETED	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:31 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	charlottefl	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:40 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening	TampaRand	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:04 PM
Banding Features Improve	weather_wise911	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:13 PM
Banding Improves in all Quadrants	weather_wise911	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:13 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	craigm	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:14 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	Josh Delsman	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:18 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	LoisCane	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:11 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	Storm Cooper	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:20 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	MikeC	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:25 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	flanewscameraman	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:06 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	Colleen A.	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:29 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	FL InsGuru	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:57 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	DaViking	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:47 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	Beaumont, TX	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:46 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	Colleen A.	Sun Aug 27 2006 09:01 PM
Recon	danielw	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:35 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	JOC	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:17 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	inHISgrip	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:21 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	Rasvar	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:48 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	pincty	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:48 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	FreeportGary	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:47 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	Josh Delsman	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:11 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:44 PM
Banding	danielw	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:06 PM
Re: Banding	LoisCane	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:15 PM
NOAA Plane	Colleen A.	Sun Aug 27 2006 08:45 PM
Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants	7 Deadly Zins	Sun Aug 27 2006 07:16 PM
Re: Banding Features Improve	Josh Delsman	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:15 PM
Re: Banding Features Improve	TampaRand	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:21 PM
Re: Banding Features Improve	allan	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:24 PM
Re: Banding Features Improve	Genesis	Sun Aug 27 2006 06:24 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	allan	Sun Aug 27 2006 04:27 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	SFL	Sun Aug 27 2006 04:00 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	Storm Cooper	Sun Aug 27 2006 04:13 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	CoalCracker	Sun Aug 27 2006 04:12 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	MikeC	Sun Aug 27 2006 03:43 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	ltpat228	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:23 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	SFL	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:02 PM
Re:center	Cat 5orBust	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:53 PM
Re:center	WeatherNut	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:00 PM
Re:center	HanKFranK	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:05 PM
Re:center	cieldumort	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:39 PM
Re:center	pcola	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:56 PM
Re:center	MikeC	Sun Aug 27 2006 03:24 PM
Re:center	HurryCaneForm	Sun Aug 27 2006 03:55 PM
Re:center	Ronn	Sun Aug 27 2006 03:47 PM
Re:center	SirCane	Sun Aug 27 2006 03:51 PM
Re:center	nc_tropical_wx79	Sun Aug 27 2006 03:43 PM
Re:center	MikeC	Sun Aug 27 2006 03:45 PM
Re:center	allan	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:59 PM
Re:center	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:50 PM
Re:center	madmumbler	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:45 PM
Re:center	nc_tropical_wx79	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:52 PM
Re:center	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:44 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	WeatherNut	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:26 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	RevUp	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:35 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:28 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	nc_tropical_wx79	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:31 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	Hugh	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:40 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday Killed -- Sent to Graveyard DELETED	RevUp	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:43 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	Random Chaos	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:47 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	darseys	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:55 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	scottsvb	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:58 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	scottsvb	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:54 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	TampaRand	Sun Aug 27 2006 03:49 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	efaulkSWFLA	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:36 PM
Monroe County Info	RedingtonBeachGuy	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:45 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	Thunderbird12	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:42 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	pcola	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:07 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	SirCane	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:25 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	dredlox	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:51 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	Thunderbird12	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:56 PM
Forum Rules Reminder	RedingtonBeachGuy	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:59 PM
Re: Forum Rules Reminder	Random Chaos	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:03 PM
Re: Forum Rules Reminder	pcola	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:21 PM
Re: Forum Rules Reminder	GuppieGrouper	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:31 PM
Re: Forum Rules Reminder	ZanneTD	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:43 PM
Re: Forum Rules Reminder	GuppieGrouper	Sun Aug 27 2006 04:46 PM
Re: Forum Rules Reminder	Rasvar	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:09 PM
Re: Forum Rules Reminder	HurryCaneForm	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:15 PM
Re: Forum Rules Reminder	SirCane	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:17 PM
Re: Forum Rules Reminder	MikeC	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:21 PM
Re: Forum Rules Reminder	HCW	Sun Aug 27 2006 02:00 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	nc_tropical_wx79	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:59 PM
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun Aug 27 2006 01:28 PM

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