Another clip of an AFD from Tallahassee this time with some great points made...
.LONG TERM... (THURSDAY-SUNDAY) THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ERNESTO. THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK MUCH FARTHER EAST THE PAST FEW RUNS...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK NEAR OR ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE THREAT TO OUR FORECAST AREA WOULD BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...IT IS DANGEROUS TO DISMISS THE THREAT TO OUR AREA SO FAR OUT IN TIME. LAST YEAR (AROUND THIS TIME WHEN KATRINA WAS STILL EAST OF FL) THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS FORECASTING KATRINA TO MAKE ITS SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...WHEN IT ACTUALLY ENDED UP MAKING LANDFALL IN MS. (THE MODELS DID EVENTUALLY LOCK ONTO THE CORRECT SOLUTION WITHIN ABOUT 72 HOURS OF LANDFALL). SIMILAR CASES (IVAN...DENNIS...ETC.) HAVE SHOWN THAT THE MODELS CAN FLIP FLOP A BIT IN THEIR LONG RANGE FORECASTS WHEN HANDLING COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERNS LIKE RECURVATURE. THE BOTTOM LINE FOR OUR AREA IS THAT IT LOOKS BETTER THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO (IF YOU DON`T WANT HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN)...BUT WE ARE NOT OFF THE HOOK YET AND PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL ERNESTO FINALLY MAKES THE TURN SOME TIME ON TUESDAY.
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