Among the models considered most reliable, the GFDL and UKMET remain to the west. The GFS is east, but it currently brings Ernesto into South Florida as a tropical storm and it's important to keep in mind that it has not been very consistent from run to run.
Is not the GFDL initialized off of the GFS? Inconsistency then is a bit concerning! ...hence the usual 'unusual level of uncertainty'.
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