Quote: Given it's latest movement, I believe the alternate scenario I mentioned this morning is becoming more and more possible (and finally picked up by at least one model) ... that the center of Ernesto never crosses, or even touches the FL peninsula, but moves NNW just off the E coast (along the eastern edge of the current cone). This would cause a lot more grief for the central and NW Bahamas.
That solution would require the ridge of high pressure to have already departed, which it hasn't, and the digging trof to be already on the FL peninsula. It's in Eastern Colorado. The steering currents don't support that either. It isn't making a definitive Northerly motion, but actually is just about on the forecast track. I'm still with the forecast track for now and awaiting the Cuba crossing. The modeling just doesn't indicate that solution anywhere. There is actually tighter consensus than there has been in a while.
A correction: A slight correction---- the trof has moved somewhat from eastern Colorado and the tailing edge is in North Texas/Eastern New Mexico
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