Quote: That solution would require the ridge of high pressure to have already departed, which it hasn't, and the digging trof to be already on the FL peninsula. It's in Eastern Colorado. The steering currents don't support that either. It isn't making a definitive Northerly motion, but actually is just about on the forecast track. I'm still with the forecast track for now and awaiting the Cuba crossing. The modeling just doesn't indicate that solution anywhere. There is actually tighter consensus than there has been in a while.
It's a different ULL. I see it on water vapor now. The "outflow" from Ernesto is being pulled up and around this ULL which is well north of the storm, and the ULL is tracking due west it appears, toward the NW Bahamas and the east coast of Florida. The pattern probably looks more complicated to me than it really is, but something pulled Ernesto to a NW track from WNW, and this looks like the culprit.
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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