MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL
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What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto?
Sun Aug 27 2006 10:32 PM
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7 AM Monday Update
At 5 AM EDT the National Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Southern Peninsula of Florida.
From Deerfield Beach Southward, and
from South of Chokolokee Southward along the West Coast.
A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for All of the Florida Keys, and for Andros Island in the Bahamas.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Ragged Island and Great Exuma in the Bahamas.
Ernesto is betwen Hati and Cuba at the moment, still recovering from land interaction yesterday. The current official national hurricane center forecast now keeps the storm a tropical storm over Cuba, but allows for some reintensification before reaching the upper keys and crossing into south Florida, and up through the state very near the east coast of Florida throughout Wednesday. It could give us in central Florida up to 6 inches of rain.
Intensity wise the hurricane center expects it to regain to hurricane strength in the Florida Straits, as the conditions there will be almost perfect for intensification when it reaches there. Very warm water, near zero shear, which gives it a window to rapidly strengthen (Remember Ernesto is a compact system).
The window of opportunity, however, is short, so it's not too likely, but possible, so those in the south Florida coastline will want to prepare for a Category 2 hurricane at least and hope for much better. Better would be further east and off the coast entirely and / or a weaker storm.
If the system stays over Cuba longer it may never reach hurricane strength before crossing into Florida, interactions with Cuba make predicting how strong the system will be very difficult.
In short we probably will not know this until tomorrow / after it cross Cuba..
11 PM Sunday Update
Hurricane Watches are now up for Andros island in the Bahamas. And tropical storm warnings for other parts. No new watches for Florida have been issued tonight.
The current forecast track has Ernesto staying a Tropical Storm over Cuba, then strengthening into a Category one hurricane before making landfall on the west coast of Florida and moving up through the central part of the
state into central Florida just west of Orlando wednesday night.
What happened? One guess is that the small upper vortex directly north of Ernesto is shearing it from one side, and helping enhance the anticyclone situated in a swath around the south and east sides of the storm. With the exception of the dab of convection firing near the center in the windward passage, the rest has pretty much been on feeder bands east of the center, bursting like crazy over and around the rest of Hispaniola.
The core has spun down from lack of inflow -- these factors took a marginal hurricane this morning and cracked up the small core . Iit has weakened enough to where it may just redevelop on the north coast of Cuba. Otherwise it should weaken, maybe even to a depression, and drift across Cuba. Now with the somewhat unexpected twists to the synoptic environment around the storm that it will fare very well unless/until it gets north of the greater Antilles. Hispaniola looks to have really wrecked the intensity, but strangely the satellite signature and overall profile of the storm does not suggest it will do anything but remain weak until it can get a little distance from mountainous land, then reintensify.
The entire Florida coast, Cuba, and the Bahamas are still under the gun. Ernesto can spin up just as fast as it spun down.
Where do you thiink Ernesto will go? Let us know here
Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Recon Report Map Plot
Guantanamo Bay Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Talahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Emergency Management/County info
East Coast Florida Coutny Websites (South to North along the East Coast)
Miami-Date County, FL
Broward County, FL (Ft. Lauderdale)
Palm Beach County, FL
Martin County, FL
St. Lucie County, FL
Indian River County, FL (Vero Beach)
Brevard County, FL
Volusia County, FL (Daytona Beach)
Flagler County, FL
St. Johns County, FL (St. Augustine)
Duval County, FL (Jacksonville)
[Nassau County, FL
West Coast Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob
Reply and let us know of other links.
Ernesto
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto
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