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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User

Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

First shot
Sun Aug 27 2006 10:45 PM

i'm wondering what's going on with ernesto just like everybody else...
best guess, the small upper vortex directly north of it is shearing it from one side, and helping enhance the anticyclone situated in a swath around the south and east sides of the storm. except for the dab of convection firing near the center in the windward passage, the rest has pretty much been on feeder bands east of the center, bursting like crazy over and around the rest of hispaniola. the core has spun down from lack of inflow, i guess... storm is still immature--these factors took a marginal hurricane this morning and cracked up the small core. it has weakened enough to where it may just redevelop on the north coast of cuba. otherwise it should weaken, maybe even to a depression, and drift across cuba. i don't think with the somewhat unexpected twists to the synoptic environment around the storm that it will fare very well unless/until it gets north of the greater antilles. hispaniola looks to have really wrecked the intensity, but strangely the satellite signature and overall profile of the storm don't suggest it will do anything but remain weak until it can get a little distance from mountainous land, then reintensify.
the talk of warnings for the bahamas... that the storm track may be further east and even outside of the gulf... makes me think the forecast track will shift right again for the 11pm advisory. may not even enter the gulf.. but the entire florida coast, cuba, and the bahamas are still under the gun. ernesto can spin up just as fast as it spun down.
nothing much else to report in the basin. debby was fired for slacking on the job. the wave/low at 17/35 or so still a broad, well-defined gyre. it's in a stable environment and needs something to wake it up... won't happen until it gets further west if it can keep it's definition in the meanwhile. probably another wave coming off.
interesting that the disturbance south of the mexican coast is barely moving. the westerly anomalies at low levels are really kicking, and suggest that more development will take place in the atlantic coming up.
HF 0244z28august

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Aug 27 2006 10:58 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto?	MikeC	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:45 PM
Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto?	Lee-Delray	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:50 AM
Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	Colleen A.	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:59 AM
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	JMII	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:09 AM
Water Vapor Loop	Colleen A.	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:24 AM
Re: Water Vapor Loop	madmumbler	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:54 AM
Re: Upper Low	MapMaster	Mon Aug 28 2006 11:09 AM
Re: Water Vapor Loop	anon tiger	Mon Aug 28 2006 11:07 AM
Re: Water Vapor Loop	MikenHoliday	Mon Aug 28 2006 11:01 AM
Re: anything else?	madmumbler	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:59 AM
Re: anything else?	BillyG60	Mon Aug 28 2006 11:06 AM
Re: anything else?	nc_tropical_wx79	Mon Aug 28 2006 11:02 AM
Re: anything else?	JOC	Mon Aug 28 2006 11:15 AM
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	LisaC	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:04 AM
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	mommy21	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:10 AM
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	charlottefl	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:16 AM
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	JMII	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:20 AM
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	tpratch	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:34 AM
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	Lee-Delray	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:37 AM
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	amonty	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:49 AM
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	Wxwatcher2	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:52 AM
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	JMII	Mon Aug 28 2006 11:11 AM
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	NewWatcher	Mon Aug 28 2006 11:15 AM
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	tpratch	Mon Aug 28 2006 11:34 AM
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	tpratch	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:48 AM
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	NewWatcher	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:48 AM
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	hornedcow	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:36 AM
Re: Governer Bush to Hold Press Conference @ 10:00am	nc_tropical_wx79	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:15 AM
Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto?	NewWatcher	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:59 AM
Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto?	madmumbler	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:08 AM
Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto?	hornedcow	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:21 AM
Re:Time stamps	MapMaster	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:24 AM
Bush's Press Conf.	LisaC	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:30 AM
Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto?	Lee-Delray	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:34 AM
Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto?	JustMe	Mon Aug 28 2006 06:30 AM
Ernesto....	nicolew	Mon Aug 28 2006 06:51 AM
Re: Ernesto....	madmumbler	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:47 AM
Re: Ernesto....	engicedave	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:04 AM
Re: Ernesto....	flranger	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:17 AM
Re: Ernesto....	engicedave	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:25 AM
Re: Ernesto....	MikeC	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:29 AM
Re: Ernesto....	madmumbler	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:50 AM
Re: Ernesto....	GuppieGrouper	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:59 AM
Re: Ernesto....	Hugh	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:03 AM
Re: Ernesto....	GuppieGrouper	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:14 AM
Re: Ernesto....	madmumbler	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:21 AM
Re: Ernesto....	LoisCane	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:19 AM
Re: Ernesto....	charlottefl	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:22 AM
Re: Ernesto....	GuppieGrouper	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:38 AM
Re: Ernesto....	meto23	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:32 AM
Re: Ernesto....	Wxwatcher2	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:39 AM
Re: Ernesto....	MadDog	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:40 AM
Re: Ernesto....	Ned	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:56 AM
Re: Ernesto....	sara33	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:00 AM
Re: Ernesto....	amonty	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:14 AM
Re: Ernesto....	LisaC	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:18 AM
Re: Ernesto....	inHISgrip	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:09 AM
Re: Ernesto....	The Bear	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:55 AM
Re: Ernesto....	Lee-Delray	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:58 AM
Re: Ernesto....	hawg92	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:15 AM
Re: Ernesto....	madmumbler	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:04 AM
Re: Ernesto....	hawg92	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:32 AM
Re: Ernesto....	NewWatcher	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:33 AM
Re: Ernesto....	nc_tropical_wx79	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:22 AM
Re: Ernesto....	chase 22	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:29 AM
over cuba	HanKFranK	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:37 AM
Re: over cuba	amonty	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:00 AM
Re: over cuba	nc_tropical_wx79	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:03 AM
Re: Ernesto....	charlottefl	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:27 AM
Re: Ernesto....	Lee-Delray	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:31 AM
Re: Ernesto....	Colleen A.	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:50 AM
Re: Ernesto....	vineyardsaker	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:58 AM
Re: Ernesto....	tpratch	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:42 AM
Re: Ernesto and History	MapMaster	Mon Aug 28 2006 10:20 AM
Re: Ernesto....	Lee-Delray	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:48 AM
Re: Ernesto....	NewWatcher	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:46 AM
Re: Ernesto....	nc_tropical_wx79	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:33 AM
Re: Ernesto....	The Bear	Mon Aug 28 2006 09:30 AM
Re: Ernesto....	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:49 AM
Re: Ernesto....	nc_tropical_wx79	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:45 AM
water vapor shows high possibly eroding..	LoisCane	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:50 AM
Re: Future storm?	Rasvar	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:36 AM
Re: Ernesto....	Josh Delsman	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:11 AM
Re: Ernesto....	Rasvar	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:57 AM
Re: Ernesto....	ftlaudbob	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:46 AM
Re: Ernesto....	Beach	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:43 AM
Re: Ernesto....	Josh Delsman	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:46 AM
Re: Ernesto....	Ned	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:52 AM
Re: Ernesto....	leetdan	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:39 AM
Re: Ernesto....	RockledgeRick	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:44 AM
Re: Ernesto....	Rasvar	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:54 AM
Re: Ernesto....	charlottefl	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:28 AM
Ernesto & FL East Coast Track?	berrywr	Mon Aug 28 2006 02:47 AM
Re: What's up with Tropical Storm Ernesto?	NeilT	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:12 PM
First shot	HanKFranK	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:45 PM
Re: First shot	dredlox	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:25 PM
Re: First shot	TampaRand	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:29 PM
Re: JETSTREAM	dhsfireman	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:35 PM
Re: First shot	HanKFranK	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:34 PM
Re: First shot	JMII	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:51 PM
Re: First shot	TampaRand	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:59 PM
Re: First shot	MikeC	Mon Aug 28 2006 12:03 AM
Re: First shot	inHISgrip	Mon Aug 28 2006 12:19 AM
Re: First shot	Colleen A.	Mon Aug 28 2006 12:14 AM
Re: First shot	TampaRand	Mon Aug 28 2006 12:19 AM
Re: First shot	TampaRand	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:40 PM
Re: First shot	Storm Hunter	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:53 PM
Re: First shot	Rasvar	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:59 PM
Re: First shot	Josh Delsman	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:48 PM
Re: First shot	JMII	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:51 PM
Re: First shot	RevUp	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:54 PM
Re: First shot	Josh Delsman	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:57 PM
Re: First shot	TampaRand	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:04 PM
Re: First shot	Josh Delsman	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:11 PM
Re: First shot	TampaRand	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:19 PM
nasa's reaction	clueless	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:09 PM
Re: nasa's reaction	Rasvar	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:19 PM
Re: First shot	Rasvar	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:08 PM
Model Shifts	Colleen A.	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:48 PM
Re: Model Shifts	inHISgrip	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:58 PM
Re: Model Shifts	Colleen A.	Mon Aug 28 2006 12:09 AM
Re: Model Shifts	HurryCaneForm	Mon Aug 28 2006 12:21 AM
this is rich	HanKFranK	Mon Aug 28 2006 12:47 AM
Re: this is rich	danielw	Mon Aug 28 2006 01:00 AM
Re: this is rich	inHISgrip	Mon Aug 28 2006 01:04 AM
Re: this is rich	nc_tropical_wx79	Mon Aug 28 2006 01:09 AM
Re: this is rich	danielw	Mon Aug 28 2006 01:13 AM
Re: this is rich	hurricaneguy	Mon Aug 28 2006 01:23 AM
Re: this is rich	Josh Delsman	Mon Aug 28 2006 01:23 AM
Re: this is rich	nc_tropical_wx79	Mon Aug 28 2006 01:34 AM
Re: this is rich	Josh Delsman	Mon Aug 28 2006 01:39 AM
Re: this is rich	JustMe	Mon Aug 28 2006 01:46 AM
Re: this is rich	nc_tropical_wx79	Mon Aug 28 2006 02:10 AM
Re: this is rich	WeatherNLU	Mon Aug 28 2006 02:14 AM
Re: this is rich	danielw	Mon Aug 28 2006 02:19 AM
Satellites	danielw	Mon Aug 28 2006 02:31 AM
Re: Satellites	HanKFranK	Mon Aug 28 2006 02:40 AM
Models	danielw	Mon Aug 28 2006 02:46 AM
Re: Models	WeatherNLU	Mon Aug 28 2006 02:53 AM
Re: Models	danielw	Mon Aug 28 2006 03:00 AM
Re: Models	cieldumort	Mon Aug 28 2006 03:26 AM
Re: Models	hurricaneguy	Mon Aug 28 2006 03:38 AM
Re: Models	Ned	Mon Aug 28 2006 04:33 AM
Re: Models	Ned	Mon Aug 28 2006 12:02 PM
re: ULL pulling it..	LoisCane	Mon Aug 28 2006 08:14 AM
Re: Models	tornado00	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:07 AM
Re: Models	Susan in Jupiter, FL	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:21 AM
Re: Models	Ned	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:29 AM
Re: Models	tornado00	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:48 AM
Re: Models	SebastianLou	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:22 AM
Re: Models	Josh Delsman	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:29 AM
Re: Models	Rasvar	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:28 AM
Re: Models	Ned	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:17 AM
Re: this is rich	nc_tropical_wx79	Mon Aug 28 2006 01:45 AM
Re: this is rich	Josh Delsman	Mon Aug 28 2006 01:12 AM
Re: Model Shifts	hurricaneguy	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:53 PM
Update	danielw	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:02 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati	Josh Delsman	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:37 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati	Colleen A.	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:00 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati	allan	Sun Aug 27 2006 11:27 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati	Rasvar	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:42 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati	chase 22	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:48 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto West of Hati	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun Aug 27 2006 10:42 PM

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