i'm wondering what's going on with ernesto just like everybody else... best guess, the small upper vortex directly north of it is shearing it from one side, and helping enhance the anticyclone situated in a swath around the south and east sides of the storm. except for the dab of convection firing near the center in the windward passage, the rest has pretty much been on feeder bands east of the center, bursting like crazy over and around the rest of hispaniola. the core has spun down from lack of inflow, i guess... storm is still immature--these factors took a marginal hurricane this morning and cracked up the small core. it has weakened enough to where it may just redevelop on the north coast of cuba. otherwise it should weaken, maybe even to a depression, and drift across cuba. i don't think with the somewhat unexpected twists to the synoptic environment around the storm that it will fare very well unless/until it gets north of the greater antilles. hispaniola looks to have really wrecked the intensity, but strangely the satellite signature and overall profile of the storm don't suggest it will do anything but remain weak until it can get a little distance from mountainous land, then reintensify. the talk of warnings for the bahamas... that the storm track may be further east and even outside of the gulf... makes me think the forecast track will shift right again for the 11pm advisory. may not even enter the gulf.. but the entire florida coast, cuba, and the bahamas are still under the gun. ernesto can spin up just as fast as it spun down. nothing much else to report in the basin. debby was fired for slacking on the job. the wave/low at 17/35 or so still a broad, well-defined gyre. it's in a stable environment and needs something to wake it up... won't happen until it gets further west if it can keep it's definition in the meanwhile. probably another wave coming off. interesting that the disturbance south of the mexican coast is barely moving. the westerly anomalies at low levels are really kicking, and suggest that more development will take place in the atlantic coming up. HF 0244z28august
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