The ULL moving from the Bahamas west towards FL is something I have not heard mentioned in regards to the future track/effect on Ernesto, so I hope someone with more knowledge then me can chime in on this aspect. All the clouds over FL are moving due west... and upon further investiation (using the Atlantic water vapor loop - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html ) it looks like a high pressure area is sitting over GA which would cause Ernesto to be pushed back to west before reaching the FL Keys. Am I to assume that this high is forecast to move east thus clearly the way for Ernesto to move N into S FL? Can someone confirm that as well?
I must say while COC looks very weak the outflow is extremely impressive. Maybe this is why the NHC keeps saying it's going to return to hurricane status despite the fact that its lost most of it's core energy. Both the mountains of Haiti and the some shear has done alot of damage but given the huge upper level outflow I see it sure has the makings of something nasty down the road.
-------------------- South FL Native... experienced: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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