Quote: I must say while COC looks very weak the outflow is extremely impressive. Maybe this is why the NHC keeps saying it's going to return to hurricane status despite the fact that its lost most of it's core energy. Both the mountains of Haiti and the some shear has done alot of damage but given the huge upper level outflow I see it sure has the makings of something nasty down the road.
The outflow is being cut off because the feeder bands from the south can't wrap back around the center from the north. This is because of the 2000m mountains in Hispaņola. Once the COC moves further away, it'll be a bit easier for it to reorganize, I believe. Also, it's important to note that some models take the storm off the coast of Cuba sooner rather than later. If this were the case, Ernesto would have an easier time gathering its strength. Also, if that were the case, we could be looking at an east coast FL landfall.
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