goshsakes, drop the hurricane warnings for haiti and southeast cuba. the previous evening recon pass barely found any gale force winds either. ernesto is stuck over a narrow strait with hispaniola disrupting its inflow (and it's offcenter anticyclone causing much of the convection to fire east over the island), a small, misaligned core, and has an unexpected and nagging upper shear axis cutting across it from another upper vortmax that wouldn't have been an issue had it stayed near jamaica. ernesto will probably weaken and reform on the north coast of cuba, or barely come off as anything if it stays over land for a day or so. however, basic synoptic setup favors it to restrengthen in spite of everything when it gets a little distance from land (and also when it can feed off the convergence from that strong easterly fetch just north of haiti). we're probably going to hear a bunch of people saying 'it's dead' or 'hispaniola killed it' or 'no more ernesto' when the crowd wakes up tomorrow. i'll just remind everyone again... small core system. it can spin up in a hurry, and the essential factors that have let it develop so far aren't very much changed, just it's relationship to landmasses. that will change, and during the next couple of days shear should again drop to favorable levels. HF 0639z28august
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is disabled
Thread views: 31793
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center