First, a disclaimer - We've been packing/cleaning/moving for a week, so I'm not following Ernesto nearly as close as I typically follow tropical cyclones, and have been doing so while quite punchy.
So take this observation with a grain or ten of salt That said - It is looking somewhat plausible to me that Ernesto may get nudged farther west/southwest - as some models have recently suggested, but perhaps even a little bit more - I have been watching that incoming fist of dry air to his north. Here's a kicker - I suspect that unlike Chris, who was north of the islands, Ernesto is *possibly* south-enough of the islands to not be as impacted (should this indeed play out) that he may not have the triple-whammy of dry air + shear + land. In fact, he may simply get nudged over some warmer waters and farther from land -- this is not the official forecast, of course, and just one possibility as I see it. Ernesto is such a devil to forecast - lots of variables - and I do not submit that I am at all 100% bought in to this - just that it looks much more possible now than just 24 hours ago.
Another possible outcome of this, should it play out, would be for it not to shove Ernesto enough - or soon enough - to keep him from fully entering Cuba, but quickly enough and potently enough for him to ride up the entire length of the island - more or less - and become severely disrupted.
I submit that within the next six hours or so it should become clear if either one of these really has a chance to play out. Bears watching, because either one suggests yet another drastic change in course and/or future intensity.
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