I was just thinking the same thing.... and several computer models have shifted back toward the Big Bend area it looks like. The only fly in that ointment is that I don't believe there will be much of an Ernesto left after it interacts with Cuba. Winds are down to 45mph, and the satellite presentation is pretty sickening.
Looking at the water vapor loop... the upper level flow north of Cuba is decidedly east-to-west.... but Ernesto has consistently moved east of the forecast, so it could possibly miss Florida altogether.
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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