Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

the center moved inland over or just west of guantanamo based on sfc obs. it was reorganizing some just prior to landfall. think the more n than w movement will generally continue over land until it contacts the stronger easterly winds at the sfc... but they should keep convergence increased near the storm now that it is out of the shadow of elevated hispaniola. the mountains in se cuba are fairly high, too.. but not nearly as destructive as those on hispaniola. should pass that hilly knob on the coast to the nnw and be back out over water around sunset, i think. spend all night reorganizing and all day reintensifying. a slight westward track over the official would be better as the middle keys/glades would take the brunt of the storm, which will still likely be small in expanse. a slightly eastward track would put the core of the storm running over the heavily developed southeast coast of the state and on up the coast. the nhc mention that it could spin all the way back up to near or at major status is not idle banter... the threat of this storm becoming a substantial system before it hits florida on thursday is not to be taken lightly. the guy on here saying put up your shutters if you have them should be heeded today.
a number of the global models are hanging up the storm near the nc coast at the end of the week, as a rex-sort of feature blocks it and causes it to loop or back up near the coast. a stronger system is less likely to be caught... but if it moves more over florida and weakens then the gfs probably is on to something. euro has been showing it stall since the other day. i'm sure by mid week the folks in north carolina will have a more clear picture of the threat. the official track also implies that hurricane conditions may occur over the ne florida/georgia and south carolina coasts. this would be from an exiting and not impacting storm more than likely, so shouldn't be as bad... but i'm sure zones 1 and maybe 2 on the coast will be forced to evacuate over the next couple days as a precaution if the storm strengthens much before hitting florida.
we're going to be dealing with ernesto all week, and maybe into labor day weekend.
HF 1337z28august

dang... masters beat me to the punch on a lot of that... -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Aug 28 2006 09:41 AM)

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