New strong convection firing around the COC which is just about to exit the Cuban coast. The waters to the NW of him get progressively warmer and there is low shear, excellent conditions to intensify. Think the NHC is smart to keep the Hurricane watches in effect, as they can be easily upgraded if they see any rapid intensification taking place, and if Ernesto does not intensify or just slowly, the TS warnings will suffice for the warned areas. Think the NHC is right on the money with their track , but wouldn't be surprised if the track shifted a little further west before landfall. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg
-------------------- Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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