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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
Moderator

Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas

Re: Ernesto Over Cuba
Mon Aug 28 2006 06:21 PM

This recent visible still really helps to see what is going on this evening.

Ernesto is definitely attempting to consolidate what's left of himself close to or right along the northern coast of Cuba - roughly at 21N 77W as of this post. Having devolved into a very disorganized, broad center of circulation with possibly several lower level centers, Ernesto has finally gotten past the worst of the brutal island hills and mountains of eastern Cuba and Haiti.

Some recent model guidance, and indeed NHC, have nudged his future path gently to the left of earlier, but with a system such as Ernesto, who has had several atypical track influences, it's probably still far too early for anyone to come close to really pegging. Dr. Lyons suggested that he suspects Ernesto will make the two/three landfalls that are currently officially forecast by NHC - first one or two Keys and south Florida, then another, and final landfall, along the southeast coast (see below)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W_sm2+gif/204616W_sm.gif

What is clear at this hour is that the newest deep convection is co-locating itself perfectly with the primary low level center, and that should this trend continue as Ernesto's center is close enough to the water and removed enough from the worst topography, he will get some benefit - and likely continue to restrengthen. Of course, this should be especially the case if the llc completely pops back out over the water tonight/overnight.

Really, the Keys, Florida & the southeast coast all still need to keep a watchful eye.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Ernesto Over Cuba	MikeC	Mon Aug 28 2006 06:21 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	SFL	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:13 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	unregistered	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:27 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	weather_wise911	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:31 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	SFL	Mon Aug 28 2006 06:10 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	scottsvb	Mon Aug 28 2006 06:14 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Rasvar	Mon Aug 28 2006 06:22 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	ftlaudbob	Mon Aug 28 2006 06:27 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	LisaC	Mon Aug 28 2006 06:12 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	The Bear	Mon Aug 28 2006 06:15 PM
take...	HanKFranK	Mon Aug 28 2006 06:34 PM
Re: take...	UKCloudgazer	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:34 PM
Re: take...	tornado00	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:01 PM
Re: take...	cieldumort	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:22 PM
Re: take...	Tony Cristaldi	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:09 PM
Re: take...	MadDog	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:14 PM
Re: take...	TampaRand	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:37 PM
Re: take...	OrlandoDan	Mon Aug 28 2006 07:40 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	cieldumort	Mon Aug 28 2006 06:21 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	JFTD3	Mon Aug 28 2006 03:13 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	dolfe	Mon Aug 28 2006 03:22 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Storm Cooper	Mon Aug 28 2006 03:41 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Lee-Delray	Mon Aug 28 2006 03:26 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	starwise	Mon Aug 28 2006 03:40 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	EugeneF	Mon Aug 28 2006 04:36 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	pcola	Mon Aug 28 2006 04:38 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	AdvAutoBob	Mon Aug 28 2006 04:43 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	pcola	Mon Aug 28 2006 04:42 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	ftlaudbob	Mon Aug 28 2006 04:48 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	WPBLU	Mon Aug 28 2006 04:57 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Brad in Miami	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:04 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Brad in Miami	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:05 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Colleen A.	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:03 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	amonty	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:06 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	scottsvb	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:15 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	dondrulz	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:49 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	JustMe	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:15 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	ftlaudbob	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:23 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	ltpat228	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:49 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Tropics Guy	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:33 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	JoeFL	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:49 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	cieldumort	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:44 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	LisaC	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:28 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	pcola	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:27 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Lee-Delray	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:26 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	MapMaster	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:26 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	pcola	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:11 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	WYATT	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:02 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	scottsvb	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:01 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	JMII	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:30 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Steve H1	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:39 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Tropics Guy	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:46 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	scottsvb	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:51 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Lee-Delray	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:56 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	DayDreamer	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:58 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	bob46	Mon Aug 28 2006 06:03 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Rasvar	Mon Aug 28 2006 06:01 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	The Bear	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:34 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	scottsvb	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:37 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	HurryCaneForm	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:05 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	pcola	Mon Aug 28 2006 04:53 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Colleen A.	Mon Aug 28 2006 04:51 PM
Re: Ernesto 5pm Disco	MapMaster	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:17 PM
Re: Ernesto 5pm Disco	MapMaster	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:21 PM
Re: Ernesto 5pm Disco	The Bear	Mon Aug 28 2006 05:20 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	inHISgrip	Mon Aug 28 2006 04:51 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Mon Aug 28 2006 04:47 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	MikeC	Mon Aug 28 2006 04:39 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	offdalip	Mon Aug 28 2006 03:48 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Brad in Miami	Mon Aug 28 2006 04:02 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	starwise	Mon Aug 28 2006 03:51 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Lee-Delray	Mon Aug 28 2006 03:17 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	floridaboatowner	Mon Aug 28 2006 12:23 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Gustav	Mon Aug 28 2006 12:13 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Mon Aug 28 2006 11:11 AM
Hmmm....	Colleen A.	Mon Aug 28 2006 01:21 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Genesis	Mon Aug 28 2006 11:19 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Mon Aug 28 2006 11:29 AM
Forum Rules Reminder	RedingtonBeachGuy	Mon Aug 28 2006 11:23 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Wingman51	Mon Aug 28 2006 11:23 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Cuba	Lee-Delray	Mon Aug 28 2006 11:17 AM

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