Ernesto is definitely attempting to consolidate what's left of himself close to or right along the northern coast of Cuba - roughly at 21N 77W as of this post. Having devolved into a very disorganized, broad center of circulation with possibly several lower level centers, Ernesto has finally gotten past the worst of the brutal island hills and mountains of eastern Cuba and Haiti.
Some recent model guidance, and indeed NHC, have nudged his future path gently to the left of earlier, but with a system such as Ernesto, who has had several atypical track influences, it's probably still far too early for anyone to come close to really pegging. Dr. Lyons suggested that he suspects Ernesto will make the two/three landfalls that are currently officially forecast by NHC - first one or two Keys and south Florida, then another, and final landfall, along the southeast coast (see below) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W_sm2+gif/204616W_sm.gif
What is clear at this hour is that the newest deep convection is co-locating itself perfectly with the primary low level center, and that should this trend continue as Ernesto's center is close enough to the water and removed enough from the worst topography, he will get some benefit - and likely continue to restrengthen. Of course, this should be especially the case if the llc completely pops back out over the water tonight/overnight.
Really, the Keys, Florida & the southeast coast all still need to keep a watchful eye.
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