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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
take...
      Mon Aug 28 2006 06:34 PM

if there's a theme song to ernesto's position in its life right now, it goes like this: 'gimme fuel gimme fire gimme that which i desire...' to speed metal of course.
ernesto is now a disorganized, low-end tropical storm with decreasing land interaction, and has the classic ingredients that make a mean storm (ridging aloft, agua caliente, a good inflow source from the east). what it doesn't have is time. the critical question is this: can ernesto redevelop its inner core and bomb before it gets to shore. the official forecast doesn't allow for this, and it is probably correct. the chance of it getting re-organized in six hours and then plummeting 50 mb in the next 24 is not very high. i don't disagree with the official track, however.. the gfs and globals that take it more over the peninsula keep it weaker than it ought to be. think it'll turn just a tad sooner. doubt it'll not make landfall in SE florida.. but if it doesn't it'll be close. west florida isn't out of the woods in case it stays weaker and sweeps around through the straits or up the peninsula.. and it could miss east, too.
to be a greedy south carolinian i'd just as soon have it spend itself on florida. if it doesn't spend much time there, it'll probably have a full day after crossing florida to recover.. maybe more if it guns for north carolina. could be a more substantial hurricane up here on thursday or friday. i'm pondering going to the coast if the threat range is... say, category 1 or 2. not interested in going for anything more.
rest of the week will continue active as none of the models recurve the storm anymore... all either snag it offshore and push it back, or just run it into the carolinas outright. looks like 2 more landfalls for ernesto. there's a mix of ways that the models are doing this and it's hard to know which one to buy into until it's visit with florida is made.. whatever departs will determine whatever shows up down in charleston, myrtle beach.. or maybe up there in that other carolina. historically speaking it ought to just go there like almost everything else in the last 15 years. 'course, they'll get a more mature storm.. and don't wish that on 'em.
HF 2234z28august

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Aug 28 2006 07:41 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ernesto Over Cuba MikeCAdministrator Mon Aug 28 2006 06:34 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba SFL   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba unregistered   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba weather_wise911   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* SFL   Mon Aug 28 2006 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba scottsvb   Mon Aug 28 2006 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Rasvar   Mon Aug 28 2006 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 28 2006 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* LisaC   Mon Aug 28 2006 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba The Bear   Mon Aug 28 2006 06:15 PM
. * * take... HanKFranK   Mon Aug 28 2006 06:34 PM
. * * Re: take... UKCloudgazer   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:34 PM
. * * Re: take... tornado00   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:01 PM
. * * Re: take... cieldumort   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:22 PM
. * * Re: take... Tony Cristaldi   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:09 PM
. * * Re: take... MadDog   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:14 PM
. * * Re: take... TampaRand   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:37 PM
. * * Re: take... OrlandoDan   Mon Aug 28 2006 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba cieldumort   Mon Aug 28 2006 06:21 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba JFTD3   Mon Aug 28 2006 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba dolfe   Mon Aug 28 2006 03:22 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Storm Cooper   Mon Aug 28 2006 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 28 2006 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba starwise   Mon Aug 28 2006 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* EugeneF   Mon Aug 28 2006 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba pcola   Mon Aug 28 2006 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba AdvAutoBob   Mon Aug 28 2006 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba pcola   Mon Aug 28 2006 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 28 2006 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba WPBLU   Mon Aug 28 2006 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Brad in Miami   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Brad in Miami   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba amonty   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba scottsvb   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba dondrulz   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba JustMe   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba ltpat228   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Tropics Guy   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba JoeFL   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba cieldumort   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba LisaC   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba pcola   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:27 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba MapMaster   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba pcola   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba WYATT   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba scottsvb   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba JMII   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Steve H1   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Tropics Guy   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba scottsvb   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:51 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:56 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* DayDreamer   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba bob46   Mon Aug 28 2006 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Rasvar   Mon Aug 28 2006 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba The Bear   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba scottsvb   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba HurryCaneForm   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba pcola   Mon Aug 28 2006 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto 5pm Disco MapMaster   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto 5pm Disco MapMaster   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto 5pm Disco The Bear   Mon Aug 28 2006 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba inHISgrip   Mon Aug 28 2006 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Aug 28 2006 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 28 2006 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba offdalip   Mon Aug 28 2006 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Brad in Miami   Mon Aug 28 2006 04:02 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* starwise   Mon Aug 28 2006 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 28 2006 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba floridaboatowner   Mon Aug 28 2006 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Gustav   Mon Aug 28 2006 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:11 AM
. * * Hmmm.... Colleen A.   Mon Aug 28 2006 01:21 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Genesis   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:29 AM
. * * Forum Rules Reminder RedingtonBeachGuy   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Wingman51   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Cuba Lee-Delray   Mon Aug 28 2006 11:17 AM

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