if there's a theme song to ernesto's position in its life right now, it goes like this: 'gimme fuel gimme fire gimme that which i desire...' to speed metal of course. ernesto is now a disorganized, low-end tropical storm with decreasing land interaction, and has the classic ingredients that make a mean storm (ridging aloft, agua caliente, a good inflow source from the east). what it doesn't have is time. the critical question is this: can ernesto redevelop its inner core and bomb before it gets to shore. the official forecast doesn't allow for this, and it is probably correct. the chance of it getting re-organized in six hours and then plummeting 50 mb in the next 24 is not very high. i don't disagree with the official track, however.. the gfs and globals that take it more over the peninsula keep it weaker than it ought to be. think it'll turn just a tad sooner. doubt it'll not make landfall in SE florida.. but if it doesn't it'll be close. west florida isn't out of the woods in case it stays weaker and sweeps around through the straits or up the peninsula.. and it could miss east, too. to be a greedy south carolinian i'd just as soon have it spend itself on florida. if it doesn't spend much time there, it'll probably have a full day after crossing florida to recover.. maybe more if it guns for north carolina. could be a more substantial hurricane up here on thursday or friday. i'm pondering going to the coast if the threat range is... say, category 1 or 2. not interested in going for anything more. rest of the week will continue active as none of the models recurve the storm anymore... all either snag it offshore and push it back, or just run it into the carolinas outright. looks like 2 more landfalls for ernesto. there's a mix of ways that the models are doing this and it's hard to know which one to buy into until it's visit with florida is made.. whatever departs will determine whatever shows up down in charleston, myrtle beach.. or maybe up there in that other carolina. historically speaking it ought to just go there like almost everything else in the last 15 years. 'course, they'll get a more mature storm.. and don't wish that on 'em. HF 2234z28august
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