I think it is very likely that the 11am forecast track will shift a bit to the west. It is apparent to me that Ernesto has been moving more WNW this morning, and there is not nearly enough of a northward component to bring this ashore along the SE Florida coast. I suspect that Ernesto will cross the middle Keys and make landfall somewhere along the SW coast. The 06z GFDL run reflects this reasoning. This also means that there is a slightly longer window for strengthening, and we might see a Cat 1 at landfall.
-------------------- Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer
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