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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 111
Loc: Beckley, WV
Re: Ernesto Over Water
      Tue Aug 29 2006 08:17 AM

I think it is very likely that the 11am forecast track will shift a bit to the west. It is apparent to me that Ernesto has been moving more WNW this morning, and there is not nearly enough of a northward component to bring this ashore along the SE Florida coast. I suspect that Ernesto will cross the middle Keys and make landfall somewhere along the SW coast. The 06z GFDL run reflects this reasoning. This also means that there is a slightly longer window for strengthening, and we might see a Cat 1 at landfall.

--------------------
Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ernesto Over Water MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 29 2006 08:17 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* SFL   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:54 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water dolfinatic   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water lawgator   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water JMII   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water g-50cab   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Genesis   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water sprghill   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water offdalip   Tue Aug 29 2006 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water JMII   Tue Aug 29 2006 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 29 2006 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water 7 Deadly Zins   Tue Aug 29 2006 05:42 PM
. * * they see it too... HanKFranK   Tue Aug 29 2006 05:42 PM
. * * Re: they see it too... nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Aug 29 2006 05:51 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water LaVidaCyclone   Tue Aug 29 2006 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water LaVidaCyclone   Tue Aug 29 2006 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water cieldumort   Tue Aug 29 2006 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water LaVidaCyclone   Tue Aug 29 2006 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water pcola   Tue Aug 29 2006 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 29 2006 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Colleen A.   Tue Aug 29 2006 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water HumbleStormKat   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Josh Delsman   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water BillD   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Josh Delsman   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water BillD   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:02 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Colleen A.   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Fireform   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Rasvar   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water furkidsmom   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:44 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Ginger   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Rasvar   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Ginger   Tue Aug 29 2006 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Chris Bryant   Tue Aug 29 2006 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water andy1tom   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Josh Delsman   Tue Aug 29 2006 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 29 2006 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Colleen A.   Tue Aug 29 2006 05:07 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Gerry   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water pcola   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:53 PM
. * * Tornado Watch WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Tornado Watch Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water bradentonJas   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water dkblostnottinghamsmoney   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water OU Fan   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Psyber   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:33 PM
. * * Forum Rules RedingtonBeachGuy   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water hofloka   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water hofloka   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Cat 5orBust   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Ronn   Tue Aug 29 2006 08:17 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Beavis   Tue Aug 29 2006 08:25 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Josh Delsman   Tue Aug 29 2006 08:30 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Ronn   Tue Aug 29 2006 08:42 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Josh Delsman   Tue Aug 29 2006 08:46 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Josh Delsman   Tue Aug 29 2006 08:56 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water doug   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:10 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water bhnole   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water jeangfl   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:51 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water doug   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? dingo1   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? TampaRand   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? doug   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? scottsvb   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? CDMOrlando   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? MikenHoliday   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? Justin in Miami   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? hofloka   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? scottsvb   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? scottsvb   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? Tony Cristaldi   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? dolfinatic   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? Josh Delsman   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? Tampa101   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? StPeteBill   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:37 PM
. * * getting better organized Justin in Miami   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:44 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized ftlaudbob   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:52 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized bhnole   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:09 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized Tampa101   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:53 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized HanKFranK   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:05 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized Ed G   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:11 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized Geoff   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:33 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized Colleen A.   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:52 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized Bloodstar   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:04 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized HanKFranK   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:17 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized WPBJohn   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:43 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized Shalafi   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:46 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized AdvAutoBob   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:31 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized Goosus   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:45 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:15 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized MikenHoliday   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:18 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:22 PM
. * * accuwx track HanKFranK   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:20 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track Todd   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:35 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track JMII   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:47 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track madmumbler   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:03 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track Colleen A.   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:43 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track Ed in Va   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:52 PM
. * * track bradentonJas   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:00 PM
. * * Re: track LoisCane   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:20 PM
. * * Re: track bradentonJas   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:32 PM
. * * Space Shuttle Colleen A.   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:53 PM
. * * Re: track Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:48 PM
. * * Re: track g-50cab   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:53 PM
. * * Re: track Thunderbird12   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:01 PM
. * * Re: track *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:42 PM
. * * Re: track JOC   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:49 PM
. * * Re: track bradentonJas   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:49 PM
. * * Re: track g-50cab   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:06 PM
. * * Re: track Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:36 PM
. * * Re: track bhnole   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:06 PM
. * * Re: track *DELETED* leww   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:12 PM
. * * Re: track Conehead   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:15 PM
. * * In General John C   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:24 PM
. * * Re: track Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:13 PM
. * * Re: track furkidsmom   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:21 PM
. * * Re: track stormtiger   Tue Aug 29 2006 04:12 PM
. * * Re: track AgentB   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:47 PM
. * * Re: track Todd   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:56 PM
. * * Re: track LaVidaCyclone   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:30 PM
. * * Re: track cieldumort   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:16 PM
. * * Re: track madmumbler   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:59 PM
. * * Re: track OU Fan   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:06 PM
. * * Re: track HanKFranK   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:08 PM
. * * Re: track scottsvb   Tue Aug 29 2006 03:12 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track nc_tropical_wx79   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:46 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track SC Bill   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:25 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track Josh Delsman   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:24 PM
. * * Re: accuwx track LisaC   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:29 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized MikenHoliday   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:36 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized 7 Deadly Zins   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:43 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized Reaper   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:50 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:46 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:39 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized CDMOrlando   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:45 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized stormtiger   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:19 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized charlottefl   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:28 PM
. * * Tracking a little West? lawgator   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:35 PM
. * * Re: getting better organized marcoisland   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:03 PM
. * * Direction of movement flarrfan   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Direction of movement cuidado   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Direction of movement madmumbler   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Direction of movement cuidado   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Direction of movement Geoff   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Direction of movement Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Direction of movement Tampa101   Tue Aug 29 2006 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Direction of movement scottsvb   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Direction of movement Ed in Va   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Direction of movement dingo1   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Direction of movement Sheeper   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Direction of movement scottsvb   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? twizted sizter   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? force2005   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? JMII   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? force2005   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? Geoff   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Katrina MapMaster   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Katrina HanKFranK   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:22 AM
. * * Re: Katrina pryord1   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Katrina force2005   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Katrina Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Katrina Josh Delsman   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Katrina JoeFL   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Katrina force2005   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Katrina Josh Delsman   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Katrina force2005   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Katrina Josh Delsman   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Katrina *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* hurricanejunky   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Katrina HurryCaneForm   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Katrina CFL_Wx_Geek   Tue Aug 29 2006 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Katrina AdvAutoBob   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Katrina LisaC   Tue Aug 29 2006 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Katrina hofloka   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? chuck struck lightning survivor   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? chuck struck lightning survivor   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Models for Tampa Bay? madmumbler   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water tpratch   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water MapMaster   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Lee-Delray   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:59 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water engicedave   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Londovir   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:19 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Ginger   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:26 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water pryord1   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Blob off panhandle MapMaster   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:58 AM
. * * Re: Blob off panhandle Ginger   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:00 AM
. * * Re: Blob off panhandle AgentB   Tue Aug 29 2006 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Jamiewx   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water pryord1   Tue Aug 29 2006 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water BillD   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:28 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water TampaRand   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:46 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water WeatherNLU   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water hemster   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:35 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water TurboTech   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:43 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Kal   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:50 AM
. * * Upper Levels danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:25 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water pcola   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water bradentonJas   Tue Aug 29 2006 09:08 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 29 2006 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water engicedave   Tue Aug 29 2006 08:40 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water engicedave   Tue Aug 29 2006 08:33 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water Josh Delsman   Tue Aug 29 2006 08:34 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 29 2006 07:38 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water engicedave   Tue Aug 29 2006 08:04 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water amonty   Tue Aug 29 2006 08:25 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Water D3m3NT3DVoRT3X   Tue Aug 29 2006 08:14 AM

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