I've been looking at the upper levels also. From 0615Z to 1215Z, it appears that the ULL over the Western GOM is slightly modifying the front over N Louisiana. The WV Loop shows that between those times the front basically had No Eastward movement at the AR/ LA/ MS border. It looks like it might have even backed northward a bit over the TX/ LA border near Toledo Bend Lake. Over TN/ KY very little motion there also. And the western portion of NC seems to have cleared out a bit on the WV imagery.
I did notice that 5 of the models are still on the West side of the FL Peninsula. With 2 going ashore near Punta Gordo, and the remaining 3 going ashore between Punta Gordo and Cedar Key. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm
Another interesting note from that site , is that the SHIPS Intensity modle take Ernesto to Cat 2 level at 84 hours...where ever It might be.
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