Quote: I am interested in the dynamic that is being touted to turn the system to the north...in the NW Gulf a vigorous ULL seems to be affecting the southern aspect of the trough that is moving into the SE today and is the mechanism predicted to break down the ridge and allow the weakness to pull Ernesto to the N and then NE... As of now that area seems to be setting up in the Ft. Walton Beach area and the upper flow ahead of Ernesto is SE-NW'd for some distance... I just wonder of that ULL dynamic in the NW Gulf will keep the high from being eroded on its southern aspect enough in time to allow the turn as currently forcast?...I have some doubts on this. Any one care to comment?
I have noticed that as well. Most of the models appear to favor this storm running along the Gulf coast offshore before turning inland near Tampa. It appears to me the NHC is dragging their feet on changing their projected path to keep South Floridians on their toes.
It is becoming more probable the Northern turn will be delayed due to the ULL interaction with the front. I think Tampa to the Big Bend are is a more probable landfall area at this time.
But as always stay on your toes. Charley is proof enough small systems can change direction quickly.
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