saying this thing has the makings of a katrina... wow, we have spotted a scare-mongerer. around here you'll have a hard time selling that, unless we've got the odd member who is afraid of their shadow, or who thinks butterflies are trying to suck their blood. ernesto continues to be a study in unchanged weakness. pressure is still set at a high 1005 mb, winds only a little faster now that the center is offshore. the continued weakness has let it drag a bit further west. looks like it's going to move over more of the peninsula... track isn't up the west coast (yet?) but to get over there it would have to remain weak for longer. the satellite appearance has changed some, so strengthening today isn't unexpected. it only has 12 hr or so before contacting southern florida or getting very close in on the coast... maybe it'll strengthen a little, but it has so far to go that i doubt it'll be anywhere near hurricane strength. still a possibility after it exits florida, especially if the track is further right later in the period. my sentiment is probably not, but with the slight baroclinic environment it may have increased ability to maintain strength over the state, and deepen a little more quickly as it makes a run further up the coast. it's not the sort of thing to count on a great deal... ernesto has shown a persistent tendency to run over land and remain weak, and has ample opportunity to continue doing so. HF 1522z29august
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