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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
Moderator

Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas

Re: track
Tue Aug 29 2006 03:16 PM

Ernesto has still been in very much re-formative stages of a tropical cyclone's life cycle. As such, the "center" may reform here and there. There have also been multiple centers. For much of this morning the low level center has been well-removed from his broad mid-level circulation's center, and recently I have noticed a bit of that potential jump HF referred to on page 7, for example. Even though the low level center is still arguably southwest of the center of the radar echos, in an intensifying system the low level center will typically like to co-locate back within the deepest convection, which at this time appears more co-located around the rough center of circulation suggested by radar.

Ernesto has always been a less than ideally organized system. In fact, even when he was declared a hurricane he did not have anything resembling a well-defined "eye," for example. While we are most likely talking about hours and not days before first landfall, he remains so disorganized that the actual "center" remains very much in play.

However, the most important thing here is not to get transfixed on his center. Unless he pulls a really unexpected fast one (which is always a possibility, of course, but not as likely) the worst weather threat from Ernesto will most likely be in the form of potentially flooding rains, and this threat covers a far greater area than the relatively smaller swath(s) of severe winds.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Ernesto Over Water	MikeC	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:16 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	SFL	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:54 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	dolfinatic	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:01 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	lawgator	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:05 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	JMII	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:23 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	g-50cab	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:31 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Genesis	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:50 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	sprghill	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:55 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	offdalip	Tue Aug 29 2006 05:07 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	JMII	Tue Aug 29 2006 05:25 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Lee-Delray	Tue Aug 29 2006 05:29 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	7 Deadly Zins	Tue Aug 29 2006 05:42 PM
they see it too...	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 29 2006 05:42 PM
Re: they see it too...	nc_tropical_wx79	Tue Aug 29 2006 05:51 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	LaVidaCyclone	Tue Aug 29 2006 05:39 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	LaVidaCyclone	Tue Aug 29 2006 05:23 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	cieldumort	Tue Aug 29 2006 05:29 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	LaVidaCyclone	Tue Aug 29 2006 05:43 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	pcola	Tue Aug 29 2006 05:49 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Lee-Delray	Tue Aug 29 2006 05:54 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 29 2006 05:38 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	HumbleStormKat	Tue Aug 29 2006 06:03 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Josh Delsman	Tue Aug 29 2006 06:13 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	BillD	Tue Aug 29 2006 06:31 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Josh Delsman	Tue Aug 29 2006 06:20 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	BillD	Tue Aug 29 2006 06:02 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 29 2006 06:16 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Fireform	Tue Aug 29 2006 06:31 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Rasvar	Tue Aug 29 2006 06:36 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	furkidsmom	Tue Aug 29 2006 06:44 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Ginger	Tue Aug 29 2006 06:55 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Rasvar	Tue Aug 29 2006 06:59 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Ginger	Tue Aug 29 2006 07:03 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Chris Bryant	Tue Aug 29 2006 07:58 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	andy1tom	Tue Aug 29 2006 06:30 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Josh Delsman	Tue Aug 29 2006 06:35 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Lee-Delray	Tue Aug 29 2006 05:42 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 29 2006 05:07 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Lee-Delray	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:53 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Gerry	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:49 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	pcola	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:53 PM
Tornado Watch	WXMAN RICHIE	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:45 PM
Re: Tornado Watch	Lee-Delray	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:48 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	bradentonJas	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:59 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	dkblostnottinghamsmoney	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:34 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Thunderbird12	Tue Aug 29 2006 12:11 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	OU Fan	Tue Aug 29 2006 12:22 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Psyber	Tue Aug 29 2006 12:43 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Thunderbird12	Tue Aug 29 2006 12:33 PM
Forum Rules	RedingtonBeachGuy	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:37 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	hofloka	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:11 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	hofloka	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:42 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Cat 5orBust	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:22 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	danielw	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:31 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Ronn	Tue Aug 29 2006 08:17 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Beavis	Tue Aug 29 2006 08:25 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Josh Delsman	Tue Aug 29 2006 08:30 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Ronn	Tue Aug 29 2006 08:42 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Josh Delsman	Tue Aug 29 2006 08:46 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Josh Delsman	Tue Aug 29 2006 08:56 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	doug	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:10 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	bhnole	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:44 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	jeangfl	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:51 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	doug	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:15 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	dingo1	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:27 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	TampaRand	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:39 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	Lee-Delray	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:38 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	doug	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:33 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	scottsvb	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:41 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	CDMOrlando	Tue Aug 29 2006 12:50 PM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	MikenHoliday	Tue Aug 29 2006 12:53 PM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	Justin in Miami	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:56 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	hofloka	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:48 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	scottsvb	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:55 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	scottsvb	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:02 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	Tony Cristaldi	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:19 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	dolfinatic	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:06 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	Lee-Delray	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:15 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	Josh Delsman	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:07 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	Tampa101	Tue Aug 29 2006 12:29 PM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	StPeteBill	Tue Aug 29 2006 12:37 PM
getting better organized	Justin in Miami	Tue Aug 29 2006 12:44 PM
Re: getting better organized	ftlaudbob	Tue Aug 29 2006 12:52 PM
Re: getting better organized	bhnole	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:09 PM
Re: getting better organized	Tampa101	Tue Aug 29 2006 12:53 PM
Re: getting better organized	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:05 PM
Re: getting better organized	Ed G	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:11 PM
Re: getting better organized	Geoff	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:33 PM
Re: getting better organized	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:52 PM
Re: getting better organized	Bloodstar	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:04 PM
Re: getting better organized	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:17 PM
Re: getting better organized	WPBJohn	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:43 PM
Re: getting better organized	Shalafi	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:46 PM
Re: getting better organized	AdvAutoBob	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:31 PM
Re: getting better organized	Goosus	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:45 PM
Re: getting better organized	nc_tropical_wx79	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:15 PM
Re: getting better organized	MikenHoliday	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:18 PM
Re: getting better organized	Thunderbird12	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:22 PM
accuwx track	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:20 PM
Re: accuwx track	Todd	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:35 PM
Re: accuwx track	JMII	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:47 PM
Re: accuwx track	madmumbler	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:03 PM
Re: accuwx track	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:43 PM
Re: accuwx track	Ed in Va	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:52 PM
track	bradentonJas	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:00 PM
Re: track	LoisCane	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:20 PM
Re: track	bradentonJas	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:32 PM
Space Shuttle	Colleen A.	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:53 PM
Re: track	Thunderbird12	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:48 PM
Re: track	g-50cab	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:53 PM
Re: track	Thunderbird12	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:01 PM
Re: track Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	nc_tropical_wx79	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:42 PM
Re: track	JOC	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:49 PM
Re: track	bradentonJas	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:49 PM
Re: track	g-50cab	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:06 PM
Re: track	Lee-Delray	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:36 PM
Re: track	bhnole	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:06 PM
Re: track DELETED	leww	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:12 PM
Re: track	Conehead	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:15 PM
In General	John C	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:24 PM
Re: track	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:13 PM
Re: track	furkidsmom	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:21 PM
Re: track	stormtiger	Tue Aug 29 2006 04:12 PM
Re: track	AgentB	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:47 PM
Re: track	Todd	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:56 PM
Re: track	LaVidaCyclone	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:30 PM
Re: track	cieldumort	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:16 PM
Re: track	madmumbler	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:59 PM
Re: track	OU Fan	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:06 PM
Re: track	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:08 PM
Re: track	scottsvb	Tue Aug 29 2006 03:12 PM
Re: accuwx track	nc_tropical_wx79	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:46 PM
Re: accuwx track	SC Bill	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:25 PM
Re: accuwx track	Josh Delsman	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:24 PM
Re: accuwx track	LisaC	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:29 PM
Re: getting better organized	MikenHoliday	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:36 PM
Re: getting better organized	7 Deadly Zins	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:43 PM
Re: getting better organized	Reaper	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:50 PM
Re: getting better organized	Lee-Delray	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:46 PM
Re: getting better organized	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:39 PM
Re: getting better organized	CDMOrlando	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:45 PM
Re: getting better organized	stormtiger	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:19 PM
Re: getting better organized	charlottefl	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:28 PM
Tracking a little West?	lawgator	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:35 PM
Re: getting better organized	marcoisland	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:03 PM
Direction of movement	flarrfan	Tue Aug 29 2006 12:36 PM
Re: Direction of movement	cuidado	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:23 PM
Re: Direction of movement	madmumbler	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:46 PM
Re: Direction of movement	cuidado	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:57 PM
Re: Direction of movement	Geoff	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:51 PM
Re: Direction of movement	Lee-Delray	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:53 PM
Re: Direction of movement	Tampa101	Tue Aug 29 2006 12:46 PM
Re: Direction of movement	scottsvb	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:46 PM
Re: Direction of movement	Ed in Va	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:53 PM
Re: Direction of movement	dingo1	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:13 PM
Re: Direction of movement	Sheeper	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:49 PM
Re: Direction of movement	scottsvb	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:49 PM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	twizted sizter	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:01 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	force2005	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:53 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	JMII	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:09 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	force2005	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:19 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	Geoff	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:34 AM
Re: Katrina	MapMaster	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:02 AM
Re: Katrina	HanKFranK	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:22 AM
Re: Katrina	pryord1	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:34 AM
Re: Katrina	force2005	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:24 AM
Re: Katrina	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:27 AM
Re: Katrina	Josh Delsman	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:27 AM
Re: Katrina	JoeFL	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:09 AM
Re: Katrina	force2005	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:06 AM
Re: Katrina	Josh Delsman	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:08 AM
Re: Katrina	force2005	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:12 AM
Re: Katrina	Josh Delsman	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:17 AM
Re: Katrina Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	hurricanejunky	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:41 PM
Re: Katrina	HurryCaneForm	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:45 PM
Re: Katrina	CFL_Wx_Geek	Tue Aug 29 2006 01:56 PM
Re: Katrina	AdvAutoBob	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:14 PM
Re: Katrina	LisaC	Tue Aug 29 2006 02:10 PM
Re: Katrina	hofloka	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:05 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	chuck struck lightning survivor	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:02 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	chuck struck lightning survivor	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:28 AM
Re: Models for Tampa Bay?	madmumbler	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:17 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	tpratch	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:09 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	MapMaster	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:41 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Lee-Delray	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:59 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	engicedave	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:58 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Londovir	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:19 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Ginger	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:26 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	pryord1	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:30 AM
Re: Blob off panhandle	MapMaster	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:58 AM
Re: Blob off panhandle	Ginger	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:00 AM
Re: Blob off panhandle	AgentB	Tue Aug 29 2006 11:05 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Jamiewx	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:37 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	pryord1	Tue Aug 29 2006 10:38 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	BillD	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:28 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	TampaRand	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:46 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	WeatherNLU	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:53 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	hemster	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:35 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	TurboTech	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:50 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	danielw	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:43 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Kal	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:50 AM
Upper Levels	danielw	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:25 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	pcola	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:04 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	bradentonJas	Tue Aug 29 2006 09:08 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	GuppieGrouper	Tue Aug 29 2006 08:34 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	engicedave	Tue Aug 29 2006 08:40 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	engicedave	Tue Aug 29 2006 08:33 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	Josh Delsman	Tue Aug 29 2006 08:34 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	MikeC	Tue Aug 29 2006 07:38 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	engicedave	Tue Aug 29 2006 08:04 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	amonty	Tue Aug 29 2006 08:25 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Water	D3m3NT3DVoRT3X	Tue Aug 29 2006 08:14 AM

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