Actually, Lois's scenario is within the NHC cone of of probability track. I wish NHC would have done away with the black line, when they were voting on it. People get way too fixated on it and it gives the news stations way too much fodder to panic everyone when it comes through their broadcast area.
If you are in or near the cone, stay ready and aware but calm. This is a part of living during Hurricane season in Florida and other Hurricane susceptible areas. Charley, Katrina and countless others have shown that small last minute changes in direction can spare one city and put another into the worst of it.
Ernesto does not look like a huge threat outside of rain and some storm surge. It's structure is elongating on the Wator vapor. This maybe forshadowing the predicted NNW to N turn.
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