the 5:30 TWO is out. interesting that the nhc mentioned the wave/low near 18/43. it finally sprouted some convection this afternoon.. still a broad and mostly dry gyre, but as it gets over progressively warmer water it has some potential if the trend continues. shear profile for now and the future look marginal to fair. starting point for it would be quite high in latitude, so likely no threat to land... troughiness in the central atlantic would likely serve to draw it up early. the wave near 28w with a nice flare on the itcz is moving westward also. the gfs and some of the other globals keep showing it acting up some, also. tis the season for that sort of thing. if it develops during the workweek then a probable recurver also. if it waits around maybe it can get further west. closer to home.. hey, we've got a broad-centered, weak tropical storm moving into the keys. not the scariest storm i've seen lately--thus far it's not even challenging alberto for worst storm to hit florida this season. they slapped a hurricane watch up on the coast down state... guess they're taking the baroclinic intensification as a real possibility as it rides up. still leaning on the mostly northward solutions... they keep discounting the northeastward tracks given by some of the globals. those same models have been trending westward--the official looks pretty good for that reason. the way things look, i don't think ernesto will even cause widespread power outages in florida.. nothing they can't have back up in a day or so. not the sort of thing that 2004 and 2005 got you guys used to. HF 2142z29august
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