Quote: Not sure why anyone will be upset with NHC forcasting for Ernesto. They were right on the money. Everyone was expecting this Westward movement of the track, which I failed to see the rational for yesterday. We know intensity is hard to forecast and even I was a little weary of NHC not putting a Hurricane Warning up, but they even nailed they intensity.
People on this message board, specifically, are upset because they are wishcasting by looking at these very dynamic models. If you look, the error from yesterday has grown thousands of miles in the 120 hour time range. It did the same thing by going from Texas to the Florida coast within 24 hours. Forecasters did an excellent job with forecasting the track, surprisingly, as the official track has been statistically much better than the models (obviously) because there are hundreds of different variables that the forecasters look at that we don't necessarily have the knowledge to dissect or the access to.
I really still didn't see much more westward movement than what was expected. The actual track of the storm was only about 20 miles west of the track which had it moving over metro Miami-Dade and Broward. This is within the NHC's acceptable error!
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