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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist

Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL

Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida
Wed Aug 30 2006 10:22 AM

Quote:

Not sure why anyone will be upset with NHC forcasting for Ernesto. They were right on the money. Everyone was expecting this Westward movement of the track, which I failed to see the rational for yesterday. We know intensity is hard to forecast and even I was a little weary of NHC not putting a Hurricane Warning up, but they even nailed they intensity.

Good job to the NHC!

Here is a good example of why people are upset:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early5.png (1800 UTC Aug 29th)

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png (1800 UTC - 24 hours later - Aug 30th)

People on this message board, specifically, are upset because they are wishcasting by looking at these very dynamic models. If you look, the error from yesterday has grown thousands of miles in the 120 hour time range. It did the same thing by going from Texas to the Florida coast within 24 hours. Forecasters did an excellent job with forecasting the track, surprisingly, as the official track has been statistically much better than the models (obviously) because there are hundreds of different variables that the forecasters look at that we don't necessarily have the knowledge to dissect or the access to.

I really still didn't see much more westward movement than what was expected. The actual track of the storm was only about 20 miles west of the track which had it moving over metro Miami-Dade and Broward. This is within the NHC's acceptable error!

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	MikeC	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:22 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	dkblostnottinghamsmoney	Wed Aug 30 2006 03:08 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	HanKFranK	Wed Aug 30 2006 03:28 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Wingman51	Wed Aug 30 2006 03:34 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Josh Delsman	Wed Aug 30 2006 03:39 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	LisaC	Wed Aug 30 2006 03:38 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Ed Dunham	Wed Aug 30 2006 03:17 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	nc_tropical_wx79	Wed Aug 30 2006 03:47 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	nc_tropical_wx79	Wed Aug 30 2006 03:50 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	zacman2400	Wed Aug 30 2006 03:56 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	doug	Wed Aug 30 2006 03:59 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Larscotland	Wed Aug 30 2006 04:10 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Tampa_Lyle	Wed Aug 30 2006 04:25 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	nc_tropical_wx79	Wed Aug 30 2006 04:36 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Ed in Va	Wed Aug 30 2006 04:38 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Bee-Beep	Wed Aug 30 2006 04:42 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	nc_tropical_wx79	Wed Aug 30 2006 04:43 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Lee-Delray	Wed Aug 30 2006 04:56 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	HanKFranK	Wed Aug 30 2006 04:55 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Ed in Va	Wed Aug 30 2006 04:49 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	nc_tropical_wx79	Wed Aug 30 2006 04:58 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Josh Delsman	Wed Aug 30 2006 05:28 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	recmod	Wed Aug 30 2006 05:33 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	prideman	Wed Aug 30 2006 05:41 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	HanKFranK	Wed Aug 30 2006 05:47 PM
Administrative Note	Ed Dunham	Wed Aug 30 2006 02:03 PM
Re: Administrative Note	recmod	Wed Aug 30 2006 05:00 PM
Re: Administrative Note	Beaumont, TX	Wed Aug 30 2006 06:03 PM
Surface Weather	danielw	Wed Aug 30 2006 07:02 PM
Re: Surface Weather	GuppieGrouper	Wed Aug 30 2006 08:22 PM
Re: Surface Weather	danielw	Wed Aug 30 2006 08:34 PM
Re: Surface Weather	edaguyinccbch	Wed Aug 30 2006 09:29 PM
Re: Surface Weather	WeatherNut	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:00 PM
Re: Surface Weather	Tony Cristaldi	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:11 PM
Re: Surface Weather	WeatherNut	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:33 PM
Re: Surface Weather	Tony Cristaldi	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:51 PM
Movement	danielw	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:07 PM
Ernesto	danielw	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:18 PM
Re: Ernesto	Yikes	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:35 PM
Re: Ernesto	Yikes	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:37 PM
Re: Ernesto	dhsfireman	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:43 PM
Re: Ernesto	danielw	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:46 PM
Re: Movement	nc_tropical_wx79	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:16 PM
Re: Movement	danielw	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:23 PM
Re: Movement	nc_tropical_wx79	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:25 PM
Maps	danielw	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:28 PM
Caution	danielw	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:36 PM
Re: Surface Weather	edaguyinccbch	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:41 PM
Re: Surface Weather	nc_tropical_wx79	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:16 PM
Re: Surface Weather	WeatherNut	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:23 PM
Ernesto	danielw	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:29 PM
Re: Ernesto	Mike	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:35 PM
Re: Administrative Note	Josh Delsman	Wed Aug 30 2006 05:20 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	OrlandoDan	Wed Aug 30 2006 07:10 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	MikeC	Wed Aug 30 2006 07:17 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	HURRICANELONNY	Wed Aug 30 2006 07:49 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Josh Delsman	Wed Aug 30 2006 08:52 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	LoisCane	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:44 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Lee-Delray	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:53 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Thunderbird12	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:53 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	CarolinaGurl	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:17 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Lee-Delray	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:29 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	LisaC	Wed Aug 30 2006 08:59 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	craigm	Wed Aug 30 2006 09:20 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Josh Delsman	Wed Aug 30 2006 09:14 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Ed in Va	Wed Aug 30 2006 09:12 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	amonty	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:05 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Josh Delsman	Wed Aug 30 2006 09:16 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Lee-Delray	Wed Aug 30 2006 09:25 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Josh Delsman	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:09 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	LisaC	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:15 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	amonty	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:31 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	recmod	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:52 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Josh Delsman	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:02 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Josh Delsman	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:05 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	StormHound	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:12 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Dougyd	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:20 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	HanKFranK	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:34 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Josh Delsman	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:45 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	mcmic40	Wed Aug 30 2006 12:02 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Josh Delsman	Wed Aug 30 2006 12:03 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Sheeper	Wed Aug 30 2006 12:28 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	HanKFranK	Wed Aug 30 2006 12:43 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	WXMAN RICHIE	Wed Aug 30 2006 12:49 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Josh Delsman	Wed Aug 30 2006 12:53 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	HanKFranK	Wed Aug 30 2006 01:08 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Josh Delsman	Wed Aug 30 2006 01:18 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	gailwarning	Wed Aug 30 2006 01:15 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	emackl	Wed Aug 30 2006 01:24 PM
Pacific Hurricane	LisaC	Wed Aug 30 2006 01:57 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	D3m3NT3DVoRT3X	Wed Aug 30 2006 01:57 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Bee-Beep	Wed Aug 30 2006 02:52 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Josh Delsman	Wed Aug 30 2006 01:24 PM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Josh Delsman	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:26 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	LisaC	Wed Aug 30 2006 11:09 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	LisaC	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:43 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Thunderbird12	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:42 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Josh Delsman	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:22 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	LisaC	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:30 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	JMII	Wed Aug 30 2006 10:01 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	g-50cab	Wed Aug 30 2006 08:49 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	Psyber	Wed Aug 30 2006 08:49 AM
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida	craigm	Wed Aug 30 2006 09:10 AM

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