Quote: Not sure why anyone will be upset with NHC forcasting for Ernesto. They were right on the money. Everyone was expecting this Westward movement of the track, which I failed to see the rational for yesterday. We know intensity is hard to forecast and even I was a little weary of NHC not putting a Hurricane Warning up, but they even nailed they intensity.
No they didn't they were off by 10Kts. They admit they were wrong, they were dumbfounded as to why he didn't strengthen in the straits, although they believe it was caused by "light easterly shear". The NHC's avg forecast for intensity is subject to + or - 20KTS each day. They barely made this. Here is my references> from the Forecast Advisory #17 FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 26.1N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
And Disco 21 explains the inability to forecast the correct intensity IN OTHER WORDS...ERNESTO IS NOT STRENGTHENING. IT IS SOMEWHAT PUZZLING WHY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT INTENSIFIED TODAY. ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR MIGHT BE MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR AS SUGGESTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND A WESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT AS IMPLIED BY CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES FROM AIRCRAFT FLYING AT 1500 AND 7500 FEET AS WELL AS WSR-88D RADAR
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