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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida
      Wed Aug 30 2006 11:02 AM

Quote:

How can ANYONE say that the NHC was "right on" with their forecast? They did not have a grasp on this storm from the beginning right up through landfall. The storm was "supposed" to be a GOM Cat 3-4 hurricane affecting the upper Central Gulf Coast. That certainly didn't verify.




Unfortunately, intensity forecasts aren't necessarily a huge success in many storms. "Easy" forecasting would be great, but there are definitely things that forecasters can't foresee. For example, the SHIPS model doesn't take into account land interaction, so the experienced forecaster has to make adjustments to the official forecast. The dynamics are there, and to take a 120 hour intensity forecast seriously on your part wasn't the brightest idea.

Quote:

Everytime the NHC predicted a particular course for Ernesto, the storm went in its own direction. Example: it was NEVER supposed to go over Haiti and emerge off the north coast of Cuba in the Atlantic. Granted, forecasts 3-5 days out have an expected error rate, but the NHC didn't even nail down directional nor intensity trends correctly within a 12-24 hour frame. When the storm moved into eastern Cuba, NHC forecast a fairly quick reemergence over water. Ernesto had other plans and turned West, staying over land almost a full 18-24 hours longer than expected. Once over water in the Florida Straits, intensification was forecast, which did not happen at all. Why was that second ULL over the Bahamas (that seemed to impede intensification after Ernesto emerged N of Cuba) not forseen? They forecasted nearly ideal environmental conditions once the original ULL moved off to the west over the Yucatan.




I find it quite amusing how one could assume that a storm is supposed to go anywhere. We've learned over many years that storms are unpredictable in many respects. The NHC nailed down within a 20-30 mile track error where the storm was going to go before it even hit Cuba on Monday the southern coast of Florida, right where it did! This much is public record, and you can search many archives for the maps even at the NHC archives already collected and ready to be seen.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ernesto Over Mainland Florida MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 30 2006 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida dkblostnottinghamsmoney   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Wingman51   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:39 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida zacman2400   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida doug   Wed Aug 30 2006 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Larscotland   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Tampa_Lyle   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Ed in Va   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Bee-Beep   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:43 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Lee-Delray   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Ed in Va   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida recmod   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida prideman   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:47 PM
. * * Administrative Note Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Administrative Note recmod   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Administrative Note Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 30 2006 06:03 PM
. * * Surface Weather danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather GuppieGrouper   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:34 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather edaguyinccbch   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather WeatherNut   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather Tony Cristaldi   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather WeatherNut   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather Tony Cristaldi   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:51 PM
. * * Movement danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:07 PM
. * * Ernesto danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Yikes   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Yikes   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto dhsfireman   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:46 PM
. * * Re: Movement nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Movement danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Movement nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:25 PM
. * * Maps danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:28 PM
. * * Caution danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:36 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather edaguyinccbch   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather nc_tropical_wx79   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Surface Weather WeatherNut   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:23 PM
. * * Ernesto danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Mike   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Administrative Note Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida OrlandoDan   Wed Aug 30 2006 07:10 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 30 2006 07:17 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HURRICANELONNY   Wed Aug 30 2006 07:49 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LoisCane   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Lee-Delray   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Thunderbird12   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida CarolinaGurl   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Lee-Delray   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida craigm   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:14 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Ed in Va   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:12 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida amonty   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:05 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Lee-Delray   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:25 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida amonty   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida recmod   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:05 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida StormHound   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Dougyd   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:20 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida mcmic40   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Sheeper   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida HanKFranK   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida gailwarning   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida emackl   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:24 PM
. * * Pacific Hurricane LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida D3m3NT3DVoRT3X   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Bee-Beep   Wed Aug 30 2006 02:52 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:43 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Thunderbird12   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Josh Delsman   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida LisaC   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida JMII   Wed Aug 30 2006 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida g-50cab   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:49 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida Psyber   Wed Aug 30 2006 08:49 AM
. * * Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida craigm   Wed Aug 30 2006 09:10 AM

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