it's a little south of clewiston.. should be passing over lake okeechobee soon. the center did discernably tighten last night, with the pressure falling to around 1001 mb this morning. have to see what it starts doing this afternoon. sometimes a storm coming off will start to deepen before it goes feet wet... an early start at that may increase the threat to the carolinas. if the center doesn't redevelop east or something, should be coming off a little south of the earlier expected location.. maybe closer to melbourne. it's in a weak baroclinic environment now, which should help it deepen at least some. if the center isn't too disrupted by passage over florida it may deepen more quickly. southerly shear should begin to increase and accelerate the storm by tonight, also. the forecast track keeps hanging on south carolina, but i wouldn't be surprised if it goes a little further to the east. the warnings haven't been extended up the nc coast, but will have to be as the gradient with that high descending into the northeast will jack up the onshore flow in the mid-atlantic states. gfdl keeps showing a hurricane in the charleston area. it has had a knack for this storm so far. that's the only thing that really makes me think it'll hit sc. grand strand to the wilmington area strikes me as most likely, instinctually... worst weather east of the center passage. HF 1534z30august
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